What Beaver Model does
Beaver Model predicts every FBS college football game: who wins, by how much, how many points get scored, and where it disagrees with the Vegas line. It updates every morning during the season. More sports are on the way.
Rate every team
Each team gets offense and defense ratings built from every play this season (EPA per play, success rate, explosiveness, rushing and passing), adjusted for the opponents it faced. Early in the year, ratings lean on last season, returning players, recruiting, transfers and coaching changes, then shift to this season’s results as games are played.
Predict every game
Machine-learning models trained on every FBS game since 2015 turn the two teams’ ratings, home field, rest, travel and weather into a projected score, a line, a total and a win chance. The models only ever see information available before kickoff.
Compare with Vegas
The model’s line and total are compared with the Vegas numbers. Beaver’s Pick ★ is the side and total the model likes. Each pick shows how often picks with that size of disagreement have won in the past.
A second opinion
Sam’s model publishes a projected score for each game. Its picks ☆ come from those scores against the same Vegas line, and both models are graded side by side on the Track Record page.
Track record
7,582 games, 2017 to 2026, each season predicted using only earlier seasonsWhat the terms mean
- Spread (line)
- How many points the favorite is expected to win by. “Alabama −3.5” means Alabama is favored by 3.5; Alabama has to win by 4+ to cover, and the other team covers by losing by 3 or less (or winning).
- Model line
- A model’s own spread for the game, written the same way so you can compare it with Vegas.
- Total (over/under)
- Combined points both teams score. You can pick whether the real total goes over or under the number.
- Moneyline
- A bet on who wins outright. −150 means you risk $150 to win $100; +130 means $100 wins $130.
- ★ Beaver’s Pick
- The side and the total Beaver Model likes compared with the Vegas line. If the model’s line is better for one team than Vegas’s, that team is Beaver’s Pick.
- ☆ Sam’s Pick
- The same thing for Sam’s model: Sam’s projected score, compared with the same Vegas line the same way.
- Vegas gap
- Beaver and Vegas disagree by 3+ points on the spread or 4+ on the total. A reason to look closer, not a guarantee: historically these hit about as often as smaller disagreements.
- Against the spread (ATS)
- Whether a team covered the spread. Beating 52.4% against the spread is the break-even point at standard −110 odds.
- Win chance
- How often the model expects a team to win this game. 70% means it would lose about 3 of every 10.
- EPA per play
- Expected points added: how much each play raised or lowered a team’s expected points, based on down, distance and field position. The best single measure of offense and defense.
- Success rate
- Share of plays that keep an offense on schedule: about half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
- Opponent-adjusted
- Stats corrected for who a team played, so a big game against a weak defense counts for less.
- Havoc rate
- Plays where the defense creates chaos: tackles for loss, sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions and pass breakups, per play.
- Strength of schedule
- The average rating of the opponents a team has played so far.
- Parlay
- Several picks combined into one bet. Every leg has to win, so payouts are bigger and the chance of hitting is much smaller.
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Data
Game results, play-by-play stats, recruiting, transfers, coaches and betting lines come from CollegeFootballData.com. Weather comes from Open-Meteo. Team names and logos belong to their schools.