Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA) · 79° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Clemson–LSU) | 22–25 | – | 10–51 |
| Spread | LSU −3.6 | LSU −10 | LSU −41 |
| Total | 46.9 | 48.5 | 61 |
| LSU win chance | 59% | – | – |
Line moved from LSU −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Clemson +10 Lost★ Under 48.5 Lost
Spread: 6.4 pts better than Vegas for Clemson (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.6 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around LSU by 3.613%
Clemson by 14+
28%
Clemson by 1–13
34%
LSU by 1–13
25%
LSU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Clemson | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.079 #18 | Offense EPA / play | +0.045 #36 |
| −0.075 #16 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.101 #11 |
| +3.4% #24 | Offense success rate | +2.1% #40 |
| −4.8% #13 | Defense success rate allowed | −4.4% #14 |
| +0.055 #40 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.046 #54 |
| +0.099 #13 | Passing EPA / play | +0.079 #17 |
| −0.070 #18 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.073 #14 |
| −0.095 #14 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.108 #11 |
| +4.9 #18 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.1 #31 |
| −5.9 #17 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.8 #13 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.6% #17 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.8% #16 |
| −3.7% #13 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.3% #15 |
| +0.60 #20 | Points per drive | +0.49 #27 |
| −0.71 #15 | Points per drive allowed | −0.71 #14 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.25 #25 | Line yards per rush | +0.08 #70 |
| −0.22 #21 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.30 #13 |
| −3.1% #26 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.4% #114 |
| +2.9% #12 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.6% #7 |
| −2.4% #31 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.7% #95 |
| +2.3% #5 | Havoc created | +2.1% #11 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.011 #70 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.005 #86 |
| +0.045 #121 | Passing explosiveness | +0.001 #136 |
| +0.06 #28 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.16 #19 |
| +0.042 #123 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.003 #59 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #135 | Run rate | 48% #134 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Clemson | Season to date | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 19.4 / 25.8 | Points for / against | 43.6 / 15.2 |
| -6.4 | Avg margin | +28.4 |
| -6.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 62.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.8 |
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