Final
Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium · 90° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UAPB–Missouri) | 0–57 | – | 14–54 |
| Spread | Missouri −57.2 | Missouri −55.5 | Missouri −40 |
| Total | 56.3 | 62.5 | 68 |
| Missouri win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Missouri −54.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Missouri −55.5 Lost★ Under 62.5 Lost
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Missouri (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.2 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Missouri by 57.20%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 14+
0%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 1–13
0%
Missouri by 1–13
100%
Missouri by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UAPB | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.296 | Offense EPA / play | +0.060 #26 |
| +0.332 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.083 #12 |
| −15.0% | Offense success rate | +3.6% #19 |
| +15.8% | Defense success rate allowed | −5.1% #11 |
| −0.250 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.098 #12 |
| −0.329 | Passing EPA / play | +0.012 #49 |
| +0.307 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.073 #12 |
| +0.342 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.091 #16 |
| −21.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.7 #18 |
| +23.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.3 #14 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.7% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.7% #21 |
| +12.9% | Passing-down success allowed | −3.0% #15 |
| −2.68 | Points per drive | +0.58 #23 |
| +3.62 | Points per drive allowed | −0.43 #16 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.78 | Line yards per rush | +0.19 #16 |
| +0.85 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.27 #11 |
| +7.6% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.0% #11 |
| −6.9% | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.1% #17 |
| −0.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.6% #6 |
| −9.1% | Havoc created | +2.5% #14 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.051 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.014 #18 |
| −0.020 | Passing explosiveness | −0.027 #117 |
| −0.66 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.29 #3 |
| −0.037 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.040 #49 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 55% #28 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UAPB | Season to date | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 14.0 / 54.0 | Points for / against | 37.6 / 20.0 |
| -40.0 | Avg margin | +17.6 |
| +15.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 49.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: last games
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Missouri: last games
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