Final
Fri, Sep 4, 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 93° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UTEP–Oklahoma) | 6–42 | – | 0–51 |
| Spread | Oklahoma −35.7 | Oklahoma −40.5 | Oklahoma −51 |
| Total | 48.0 | 51.5 | 51 |
| Oklahoma win chance | 99% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTEP +40.5 Lost★ Under 51.5 Won
Spread: 4.8 pts better than Vegas for UTEP (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oklahoma by 35.70%
UTEP by 14+
1%
UTEP by 1–13
7%
Oklahoma by 1–13
92%
Oklahoma by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UTEP | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.150 #136 | Offense EPA / play | +0.057 #27 |
| +0.078 #98 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.115 #9 |
| −6.3% #137 | Offense success rate | +2.8% #34 |
| +2.7% #99 | Defense success rate allowed | −7.0% #2 |
| −0.038 #125 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.066 #37 |
| −0.191 #135 | Passing EPA / play | +0.060 #24 |
| +0.036 #78 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.113 #6 |
| +0.128 #114 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.099 #13 |
| −7.1 #122 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.5 #19 |
| +8.0 #130 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −8.9 #8 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.1% #129 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.9% #24 |
| +1.9% #98 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.9% #12 |
| −0.91 #128 | Points per drive | +0.61 #19 |
| +0.73 #115 | Points per drive allowed | −1.01 #8 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.20 #134 | Line yards per rush | +0.16 #46 |
| +0.07 #87 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.51 #2 |
| +0.2% #126 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.1% #89 |
| −0.6% #90 | Opponent runs stuffed | +5.6% #2 |
| +0.7% #130 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.0% #45 |
| −1.9% #121 | Havoc created | +2.8% #4 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.019 #49 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.026 #36 |
| +0.185 #13 | Passing explosiveness | +0.069 #109 |
| −0.34 #126 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.02 #35 |
| −0.045 #10 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.032 #18 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #91 | Run rate | 53% #90 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UTEP | Season to date | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 16.4 / 41.4 | Points for / against | 22.0 / 16.0 |
| -25.0 | Avg margin | +6.0 |
| -8.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.0 |
| 36.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.2 |
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