Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
Kyle Field · 86° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Missouri State–Texas A&M) | 8–48 | – | 0–50 |
| Spread | Texas A&M −40.7 | Texas A&M −38.5 | Texas A&M −50 |
| Total | 55.8 | 53.5 | 50 |
| Texas A&M win chance | 99% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Texas A&M −38.5 Won★ Over 53.5 Lost
Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Texas A&M (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas A&M by 40.70%
Missouri State by 14+
1%
Missouri State by 1–13
4%
Texas A&M by 1–13
95%
Texas A&M by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Missouri State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.080 #114 | Offense EPA / play | +0.144 #8 |
| +0.133 #131 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.087 #13 |
| −4.7% #125 | Offense success rate | +6.2% #9 |
| +4.2% #118 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.9% #3 |
| −0.047 #129 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.135 #6 |
| −0.109 #111 | Passing EPA / play | +0.159 #7 |
| +0.095 #128 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.065 #19 |
| +0.152 #125 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.132 #8 |
| −6.9 #121 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +8.8 #10 |
| +7.7 #125 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.9 #12 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.7% #120 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.2% #14 |
| +3.3% #127 | Passing-down success allowed | −5.5% #4 |
| −0.75 #121 | Points per drive | +0.91 #15 |
| +1.08 #132 | Points per drive allowed | −0.92 #10 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.21 #135 | Line yards per rush | +0.38 #2 |
| +0.14 #110 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.32 #9 |
| +1.7% #138 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.7% #15 |
| −1.0% #99 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.5% #19 |
| +2.8% #138 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.3% #6 |
| −1.5% #106 | Havoc created | +3.3% #3 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.002 #94 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.010 #73 |
| +0.145 #36 | Passing explosiveness | +0.025 #130 |
| −0.30 #121 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.21 #11 |
| +0.038 #116 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.002 #56 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #120 | Run rate | 56% #60 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Missouri State | Season to date | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 24.0 / 32.0 | Points for / against | 31.8 / 18.6 |
| -8.0 | Avg margin | +13.2 |
| +6.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 48.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.0 |
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