Final
Fri, Sep 11, 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium · 77° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Missouri–Kansas) | 29–27 | – | 38–21 |
| Spread | Missouri −2.3 | Missouri −4 | Missouri −17 |
| Total | 56.3 | 51.5 | 59 |
| Kansas win chance | 44% | – | – |
Line moved from Missouri −7 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kansas +4 Lost★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Kansas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.8 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Missouri by 2.324%
Missouri by 14+
32%
Missouri by 1–13
29%
Kansas by 1–13
16%
Kansas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Missouri | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.041 #41 | Offense EPA / play | +0.081 #27 |
| −0.064 #18 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.070 #78 |
| +3.3% #28 | Offense success rate | +4.3% #20 |
| −5.9% #7 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.7% #37 |
| −0.033 #79 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.041 #35 |
| +0.096 #25 | Passing EPA / play | +0.108 #21 |
| +0.004 #50 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.006 #43 |
| −0.124 #12 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.081 #85 |
| +4.4 #28 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.4 #37 |
| −1.2 #39 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.8 #68 |
| Situational | ||
| +6.4% #10 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.1% #53 |
| −3.0% #21 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.7% #71 |
| +0.86 #29 | Points per drive | +1.02 #24 |
| +0.47 #58 | Points per drive allowed | +0.70 #80 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.11 #29 | Line yards per rush | +0.24 #11 |
| −0.09 #34 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.38 #8 |
| −0.2% #53 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.1% #13 |
| +1.7% #29 | Opponent runs stuffed | +5.5% #4 |
| −2.1% #21 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.2% #18 |
| +1.1% #35 | Havoc created | +1.9% #23 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.127 #121 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.025 #82 |
| +0.033 #57 | Passing explosiveness | +0.120 #22 |
| −0.15 #66 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #72 |
| +0.028 #91 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.075 #113 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #49 | Run rate | 53% #50 |
| −37.7 #125 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −35.7 #118 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Missouri | Season to date | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 37.6 / 20.0 | Points for / against | 36.0 / 17.0 |
| +17.6 | Avg margin | +19.0 |
| +2.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.9 |
| 60.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Missouri: last 1 games
| W54-14 |
Kansas: last 1 games
| W51-6 |
