Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Williams-Brice Stadium · 78° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Towson–South Carolina) | 2–55 | – | 9–45 |
| Spread | South Carolina −52.7 | South Carolina −44.5 | South Carolina −36 |
| Total | 57.4 | 57.5 | 54 |
| South Carolina win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from South Carolina −43.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ South Carolina −44.5 Lost★ Under 57.5 Won
Spread: 8.2 pts better than Vegas for South Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around South Carolina by 52.70%
Towson by 14+
0%
Towson by 1–13
1%
South Carolina by 1–13
99%
South Carolina by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Towson | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.259 | Offense EPA / play | +0.124 #13 |
| +0.315 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.032 #28 |
| −13.4% | Offense success rate | +5.0% #13 |
| +16.0% | Defense success rate allowed | −2.2% #21 |
| −0.285 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.115 #13 |
| −0.207 | Passing EPA / play | +0.131 #18 |
| +0.272 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.069 #21 |
| +0.124 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.068 #26 |
| −19.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.4 #23 |
| +17.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −8.3 #11 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.4% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.2% #33 |
| +10.1% | Passing-down success allowed | −2.8% #23 |
| −2.75 | Points per drive | +1.94 #7 |
| +2.50 | Points per drive allowed | −0.80 #9 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.55 | Line yards per rush | +0.39 #3 |
| +0.84 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.15 #29 |
| +5.6% | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.1% #3 |
| −5.9% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.4% #31 |
| +4.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.7% #45 |
| −6.2% | Havoc created | +0.3% #51 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.140 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.033 #45 |
| +0.303 | Passing explosiveness | +0.023 #61 |
| −0.88 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.83 #3 |
| −0.355 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.099 #41 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% | Run rate | 51% #85 |
| −13.8 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −24.1 #98 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Towson | Season to date | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 12.0 / 43.5 | Points for / against | 37.6 / 26.8 |
| -31.5 | Avg margin | +10.8 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.8 |
| 62.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.8 |
Towson: last 1 games
| L15-42 |
South Carolina: last 1 games
| W57-0 |
