Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium · 84° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Troy–Missouri) | 12–40 | – | 17–27 |
| Spread | Missouri −28.2 | Missouri −26.5 | Missouri −10 |
| Total | 51.8 | 49.5 | 44 |
| Missouri win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Missouri −27.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Missouri −26.5 Lost★ Over 49.5 Lost
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Missouri (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Missouri by 28.20%
Troy by 14+
3%
Troy by 1–13
15%
Missouri by 1–13
81%
Missouri by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Troy | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.115 #111 | Offense EPA / play | +0.033 #42 |
| +0.072 #78 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.133 #7 |
| −9.0% #133 | Offense success rate | +1.7% #40 |
| +4.5% #95 | Defense success rate allowed | −8.7% #3 |
| −0.146 #122 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.049 #83 |
| −0.085 #96 | Passing EPA / play | +0.193 #12 |
| +0.005 #49 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.095 #16 |
| +0.046 #71 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.203 #6 |
| −8.7 #124 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.0 #28 |
| +7.1 #104 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.2 #20 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.8% #110 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.7% #18 |
| +3.0% #81 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.7% #22 |
| −1.56 #133 | Points per drive | +0.68 #32 |
| +1.22 #112 | Points per drive allowed | −0.10 #23 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.48 #123 | Line yards per rush | +0.09 #34 |
| −0.15 #30 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.42 #9 |
| +7.3% #132 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.3% #38 |
| +4.3% #13 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.6% #27 |
| +3.8% #133 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.1% #24 |
| +1.3% #39 | Havoc created | +4.9% #5 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.005 #70 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.147 #124 |
| +0.180 #19 | Passing explosiveness | +0.036 #59 |
| −0.23 #79 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.02 #53 |
| −0.036 #63 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.066 #107 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #71 | Run rate | 55% #35 |
| −23.8 #119 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −21.0 #111 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Troy | Season to date | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 28.0 / 24.0 | Points for / against | 37.6 / 20.0 |
| +4.0 | Avg margin | +17.6 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 74.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Troy: last 2 games
| W34-17 | |
| W24-21 |
Missouri: last 2 games
| W38-21 | |
| W54-14 |
