Final
Sat, Sep 26, 8:00 PM ET
Razorback Stadium · 73° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Tulsa–Arkansas) | 23–25 | – | 6–34 |
| Spread | Arkansas −1.6 | Arkansas −7 | Arkansas −28 |
| Total | 47.6 | 51.5 | 40 |
| Arkansas win chance | 54% | – | – |
Line moved from Arkansas −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Tulsa +7 Lost★ Under 51.5 Won
Spread: 5.4 pts better than Vegas for Tulsa (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.9 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arkansas by 1.616%
Tulsa by 14+
30%
Tulsa by 1–13
32%
Arkansas by 1–13
22%
Arkansas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Tulsa | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.073 #97 | Offense EPA / play | −0.079 #101 |
| −0.009 #51 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.087 #95 |
| −3.2% #102 | Offense success rate | +2.5% #42 |
| +0.7% #67 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.8% #80 |
| +0.085 #44 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.058 #110 |
| −0.210 #120 | Passing EPA / play | −0.056 #81 |
| −0.033 #42 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.133 #120 |
| +0.032 #70 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.006 #55 |
| −5.9 #99 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.0 #94 |
| −2.8 #40 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.6 #89 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.7% #134 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.0% #38 |
| +4.4% #114 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.6% #52 |
| −0.88 #109 | Points per drive | −0.75 #103 |
| −0.23 #43 | Points per drive allowed | +0.56 #103 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.13 #61 | Line yards per rush | −0.07 #104 |
| +0.16 #95 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.08 #79 |
| −2.8% #56 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.6% #46 |
| −1.5% #93 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.6% #78 |
| −1.6% #67 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.0% #115 |
| −2.2% #109 | Havoc created | −1.1% #79 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.207 #8 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.052 #98 |
| −0.006 #110 | Passing explosiveness | −0.119 #130 |
| +0.12 #35 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.62 #129 |
| −0.067 #39 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.078 #34 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #57 | Run rate | 50% #118 |
| −16.4 #114 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +1.4 #14 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Tulsa | Season to date | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 27.8 / 21.2 | Points for / against | 19.8 / 28.4 |
| +6.6 | Avg margin | -8.6 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.8 |
| 63.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.8 |
Tulsa: last 3 games
| W42-0 | |
| W23-17 | |
| W24-10 |
Arkansas: last 3 games
| L17-45 | |
| L10-43 | |
| W31-14 |
