Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:45 PM ET
Sanford Stadium · 79° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Vanderbilt–Georgia) | 16–42 | – | 14–38 |
| Spread | Georgia −26.0 | Georgia −25.5 | Georgia −24 |
| Total | 57.1 | 49.5 | 52 |
| Georgia win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from Georgia −23.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia −25.5 Lost★ Over 49.5 Won
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Georgia (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.6 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Georgia by 26.01%
Vanderbilt by 14+
5%
Vanderbilt by 1–13
18%
Georgia by 1–13
77%
Georgia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Vanderbilt | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.008 #64 | Offense EPA / play | +0.206 #5 |
| −0.062 #23 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.152 #6 |
| +0.3% #58 | Offense success rate | +10.4% #3 |
| −2.8% #23 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.3% #6 |
| +0.123 #16 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.185 #5 |
| −0.058 #83 | Passing EPA / play | +0.179 #17 |
| −0.040 #32 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.337 #1 |
| −0.072 #33 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.119 #21 |
| +1.7 #54 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +18.4 #1 |
| −1.4 #41 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.4 #14 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.1% #79 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.7% #15 |
| −3.4% #19 | Passing-down success allowed | −8.4% #1 |
| −0.06 #66 | Points per drive | +3.07 #1 |
| −0.02 #35 | Points per drive allowed | −0.14 #30 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.17 #26 | Line yards per rush | +0.60 #1 |
| −0.12 #35 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.82 #2 |
| −2.6% #24 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.5% #7 |
| −0.7% #65 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.6% #38 |
| −1.9% #32 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.6% #23 |
| +0.3% #51 | Havoc created | +1.4% #33 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.100 #29 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.099 #111 |
| −0.207 #130 | Passing explosiveness | −0.084 #101 |
| −0.37 #106 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.80 #6 |
| +0.099 #115 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.077 #52 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #59 | Run rate | 51% #78 |
| −4.4 #30 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.7 #104 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Vanderbilt | Season to date | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 25.4 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 51.4 / 13.4 |
| +0.4 | Avg margin | +38.0 |
| -3.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.7 |
| 63.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 42.6 |
Vanderbilt: last 4 games
| L15-21 | |
| W35-31 | |
| W35-26 | |
| W28-9 |
Georgia: last 4 games
| W41-13 | |
| W45-17 | |
| W70-20 | |
| W63-3 |
