Final
Thu, Sep 3, 9:00 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium · 79° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Idaho–Utah) | 8–54 | – | 14–66 |
| Spread | Utah −46.2 | Utah −38.5 | Utah −52 |
| Total | 61.4 | 60.5 | 80 |
| Utah win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Utah −32.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Utah −38.5 Won★ Over 60.5 Won
Spread: 7.7 pts better than Vegas for Utah (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Utah by 46.20%
Idaho by 14+
0%
Idaho by 1–13
2%
Utah by 1–13
98%
Utah by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Idaho | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.051 | Offense EPA / play | +0.111 #14 |
| +0.285 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.046 #27 |
| −6.3% | Offense success rate | +4.5% #16 |
| +12.1% | Defense success rate allowed | −2.5% #25 |
| −0.066 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.147 #4 |
| +0.028 | Passing EPA / play | +0.060 #23 |
| +0.191 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.012 #54 |
| +0.372 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.062 #22 |
| −11.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +7.0 #14 |
| +13.2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.4 #24 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.9% #15 |
| +10.5% | Passing-down success allowed | −2.3% #22 |
| −1.48 | Points per drive | +1.11 #9 |
| +1.71 | Points per drive allowed | −0.41 #25 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.25 | Line yards per rush | +0.42 #1 |
| +0.47 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.15 #28 |
| +2.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.8% #4 |
| −5.1% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.8% #28 |
| −5.9% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.7% #12 |
| −8.4% | Havoc created | +0.4% #45 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.092 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.029 #31 |
| +0.188 | Passing explosiveness | +0.138 #40 |
| −0.69 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.10 #22 |
| −0.078 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.039 #118 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% | Run rate | 61% #24 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Idaho | Season to date | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 14.0 / 66.0 | Points for / against | 43.2 / 10.2 |
| -52.0 | Avg margin | +33.0 |
| -13.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +11.5 |
| 59.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.0 |
Idaho: last games
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