Final
Fri, Sep 4, 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium · 91° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (LIU–Kansas) | 7–51 | – | 6–51 |
| Spread | Kansas −44.5 | Kansas −44.5 | Kansas −45 |
| Total | 58.5 | 57.5 | 57 |
| Kansas win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Kansas −38.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Over 57.5 Lost
Total: 1.0 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kansas by 44.50%
Long Island University by 14+
0%
Long Island University by 1–13
3%
Kansas by 1–13
97%
Kansas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| LIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.302 | Offense EPA / play | +0.059 #25 |
| +0.222 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.059 #82 |
| −12.8% | Offense success rate | +3.9% #20 |
| +9.8% | Defense success rate allowed | −0.3% #51 |
| −0.179 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.077 #30 |
| −0.321 | Passing EPA / play | +0.027 #33 |
| +0.244 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.025 #64 |
| +0.206 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.083 #86 |
| −20.6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.1 #48 |
| +13.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.3 #58 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.8% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.1% #44 |
| +5.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.2% #61 |
| −2.52 | Points per drive | +0.24 #43 |
| +2.04 | Points per drive allowed | +0.07 #57 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.71 | Line yards per rush | +0.37 #4 |
| +0.63 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.08 #45 |
| +10.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.7% #5 |
| −7.2% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.1% #41 |
| −0.9% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.3% #33 |
| −10.4% | Havoc created | +0.9% #25 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.107 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.028 #129 |
| +0.048 | Passing explosiveness | +0.123 #52 |
| −0.33 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.13 #73 |
| −0.029 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.087 #133 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 62% | Run rate | 56% #51 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| LIU | Season to date | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-0 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 0-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 4.5 / 35.5 | Points for / against | 36.0 / 17.0 |
| -31.0 | Avg margin | +19.0 |
| +10.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.9 |
| 50.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
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