Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 94° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Nicholls–Kansas State) | 9–47 | – | 3–71 |
| Spread | Kansas State −38.2 | Kansas State −41.5 | Kansas State −68 |
| Total | 55.8 | 55.5 | 74 |
| Kansas State win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Kansas State −40.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Nicholls +41.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Won
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for Nicholls (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kansas State by 38.20%
Nicholls by 14+
1%
Nicholls by 1–13
6%
Kansas State by 1–13
93%
Kansas State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Nicholls | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.233 | Offense EPA / play | +0.003 #57 |
| +0.171 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.005 #47 |
| −14.0% | Offense success rate | −0.3% #66 |
| +11.6% | Defense success rate allowed | −0.3% #48 |
| −0.176 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.054 #42 |
| −0.234 | Passing EPA / play | −0.037 #71 |
| +0.324 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.020 #58 |
| +0.093 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.020 #51 |
| −19.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.1 #55 |
| +12.4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.6 #65 |
| Situational | ||
| −15.9% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.3% #65 |
| +8.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.3% #63 |
| −2.53 | Points per drive | −0.05 #65 |
| +1.97 | Points per drive allowed | −0.01 #51 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.32 | Line yards per rush | +0.04 #86 |
| +1.24 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.06 #49 |
| +2.9% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.2% #125 |
| −12.0% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.8% #50 |
| −2.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #103 |
| −9.7% | Havoc created | +0.0% #57 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.007 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.030 #30 |
| +0.281 | Passing explosiveness | +0.071 #108 |
| −0.59 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.14 #21 |
| −0.207 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.009 #75 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% | Run rate | 54% #81 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Nicholls | Season to date | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 2-0 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 1.5 / 65.0 | Points for / against | 40.5 / 15.2 |
| -63.5 | Avg margin | +25.2 |
| -32.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.9 |
| 51.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.5 |
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