Final
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium · 96° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Morgan State–Arizona State) | 4–52 | – | 7–70 |
| Spread | Arizona State −48.7 | Arizona State −43.5 | Arizona State −63 |
| Total | 55.8 | 52.5 | 77 |
| Arizona State win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Arizona State −41.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Arizona State −43.5 Won★ Over 52.5 Won
Spread: 5.2 pts better than Vegas for Arizona State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arizona State by 48.70%
Morgan State by 14+
0%
Morgan State by 1–13
1%
Arizona State by 1–13
98%
Arizona State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Morgan State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.321 | Offense EPA / play | +0.010 #52 |
| +0.245 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.036 #31 |
| −15.9% | Offense success rate | +1.0% #46 |
| +13.3% | Defense success rate allowed | −1.4% #37 |
| −0.230 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.050 #48 |
| −0.445 | Passing EPA / play | +0.014 #43 |
| +0.185 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.020 #36 |
| +0.307 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.024 #32 |
| −22.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.7 #54 |
| +19.4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.6 #27 |
| Situational | ||
| −14.7% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.6% #54 |
| +11.0% | Passing-down success allowed | −1.7% #29 |
| −3.09 | Points per drive | +0.00 #60 |
| +2.10 | Points per drive allowed | −0.37 #28 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.63 | Line yards per rush | +0.19 #38 |
| +0.59 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.15 #29 |
| +7.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.3% #47 |
| −4.5% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.7% #29 |
| +1.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.6% #61 |
| −6.8% | Havoc created | +1.6% #16 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.082 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.005 #104 |
| +0.101 | Passing explosiveness | +0.130 #46 |
| −0.85 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.08 #24 |
| −0.018 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.024 #26 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% | Run rate | 56% #54 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Morgan State | Season to date | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 7.0 / 70.0 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 31.8 |
| -63.0 | Avg margin | +1.5 |
| -19.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.8 |
| 43.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.5 |
Morgan State: last games
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Arizona State: last games
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