Final
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium · 79° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Utah Tech–BYU) | 2–53 | – | 7–63 |
| Spread | BYU −50.7 | BYU −50.5 | BYU −56 |
| Total | 54.6 | 61.5 | 70 |
| BYU win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from BYU −47.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ BYU −50.5 Won★ Under 61.5 Lost
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for BYU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.9 pts below Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around BYU by 50.70%
Utah Tech by 14+
0%
Utah Tech by 1–13
1%
BYU by 1–13
99%
BYU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Utah Tech | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.344 | Offense EPA / play | +0.074 #20 |
| +0.240 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.042 #29 |
| −13.4% | Offense success rate | +3.9% #18 |
| +8.6% | Defense success rate allowed | −2.2% #28 |
| −0.226 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.131 #7 |
| −0.393 | Passing EPA / play | +0.032 #30 |
| +0.233 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.022 #35 |
| +0.271 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.025 #31 |
| −22.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.9 #22 |
| +15.2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.1 #19 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.9% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.5% #34 |
| +8.0% | Passing-down success allowed | −2.6% #20 |
| −2.79 | Points per drive | +0.60 #22 |
| +2.07 | Points per drive allowed | −0.51 #20 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.41 | Line yards per rush | +0.27 #22 |
| +0.50 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.15 #30 |
| −1.7% | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.7% #16 |
| −5.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.8% #27 |
| −3.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.8% #10 |
| −10.0% | Havoc created | +0.4% #46 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.147 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.031 #25 |
| +0.004 | Passing explosiveness | +0.104 #70 |
| −1.11 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.09 #60 |
| +0.003 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.018 #29 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% | Run rate | 60% #31 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Utah Tech | Season to date | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 7.0 / 63.0 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 14.2 |
| -56.0 | Avg margin | +23.0 |
| -5.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.0 |
| 51.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.8 |
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