Final
Thu, Sep 3, 8:00 PM ET
Bobby Dodd Stadium · 87° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Colorado–Georgia Tech) | 21–35 | – | 14–13 |
| Spread | Georgia Tech −14.0 | Georgia Tech −6.5 | Colorado −1 |
| Total | 55.6 | 53.5 | 27 |
| Georgia Tech win chance | 81% | – | – |
Line moved from Georgia Tech −7 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia Tech −6.5 Lost★ Over 53.5 Lost
Spread: 7.5 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Georgia Tech by 14.04%
Colorado by 14+
15%
Colorado by 1–13
31%
Georgia Tech by 1–13
50%
Georgia Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Colorado | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.004 #62 | Offense EPA / play | +0.073 #21 |
| +0.020 #58 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.009 #52 |
| −1.4% #87 | Offense success rate | +5.2% #13 |
| −0.3% #47 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.2% #53 |
| +0.020 #73 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.074 #32 |
| −0.007 #54 | Passing EPA / play | +0.075 #18 |
| −0.002 #46 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.012 #39 |
| +0.052 #66 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.002 #41 |
| −1.0 #64 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.3 #28 |
| +0.8 #67 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.1 #39 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.6% #53 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.3% #19 |
| −0.9% #39 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.3% #34 |
| −0.04 #62 | Points per drive | +0.36 #34 |
| +0.21 #71 | Points per drive allowed | −0.19 #42 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.06 #77 | Line yards per rush | +0.33 #9 |
| −0.04 #55 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.04 #53 |
| −0.9% #95 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.9% #14 |
| +0.6% #55 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.8% #49 |
| −0.0% #120 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.4% #17 |
| +0.1% #53 | Havoc created | −0.5% #64 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.025 #39 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.023 #122 |
| +0.178 #19 | Passing explosiveness | +0.039 #122 |
| −0.07 #54 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.03 #41 |
| +0.102 #136 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.013 #34 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #109 | Run rate | 57% #38 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Colorado | Season to date | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 0-4 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 18.6 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 27.0 / 26.0 |
| -6.8 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| -8.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.9 |
| 68.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
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