Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
Reser Stadium · 58° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Texas Tech–Oregon State) | 32–15 | – | 35–24 |
| Spread | Texas Tech −16.3 | Texas Tech −25.5 | Texas Tech −11 |
| Total | 47.1 | 52.5 | 59 |
| Oregon State win chance | 15% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas Tech −27.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Oregon State +25.5 Won★ Under 52.5 Lost
Spread: 9.2 pts better than Vegas for Oregon State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.4 pts below Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas Tech by 16.356%
Texas Tech by 14+
29%
Texas Tech by 1–13
12%
Oregon State by 1–13
3%
Oregon State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Texas Tech | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.024 #47 | Offense EPA / play | −0.051 #87 |
| −0.141 #7 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.112 #96 |
| +1.6% #41 | Offense success rate | −1.5% #69 |
| −5.2% #8 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.0% #93 |
| +0.025 #47 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.125 #118 |
| +0.063 #36 | Passing EPA / play | −0.052 #86 |
| −0.117 #11 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.080 #92 |
| −0.150 #7 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.101 #90 |
| +4.4 #27 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.5 #95 |
| −5.8 #16 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.6 #90 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.4% #31 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.5% #73 |
| −0.2% #49 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.1% #125 |
| +0.52 #35 | Points per drive | −0.55 #86 |
| −0.06 #30 | Points per drive allowed | +0.73 #82 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.05 #38 | Line yards per rush | −0.18 #80 |
| −0.28 #15 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.23 #98 |
| −0.3% #50 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.2% #9 |
| +0.4% #44 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.5% #82 |
| +0.1% #72 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.0% #131 |
| +4.9% #4 | Havoc created | +0.4% #48 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.024 #81 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.020 #78 |
| −0.062 #103 | Passing explosiveness | −0.032 #85 |
| −0.19 #76 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.40 #120 |
| −0.169 #13 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.009 #77 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #104 | Run rate | 46% #123 |
| −20.5 #93 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.8 #38 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Texas Tech | Season to date | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 34.8 / 16.2 | Points for / against | 37.0 / 23.6 |
| +18.6 | Avg margin | +13.4 |
| -6.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +15.5 |
| 63.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.2 |
Texas Tech: last 1 games
| W33-10 |
Oregon State: last 1 games
| L20-33 |
