Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Nippert Stadium · 74° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WCU–Cincinnati) | 13–51 | – | 10–62 |
| Spread | Cincinnati −38.2 | Cincinnati −36.5 | Cincinnati −52 |
| Total | 64.7 | 61.5 | 72 |
| Cincinnati win chance | 99% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Cincinnati −36.5 Won★ Over 61.5 Won
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Cincinnati (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Cincinnati by 38.20%
Western Carolina by 14+
1%
Western Carolina by 1–13
6%
Cincinnati by 1–13
93%
Cincinnati by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WCU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.175 | Offense EPA / play | +0.051 #38 |
| +0.231 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.003 #58 |
| −8.9% | Offense success rate | +0.7% #56 |
| +8.8% | Defense success rate allowed | +0.4% #63 |
| −0.206 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.107 #25 |
| −0.111 | Passing EPA / play | −0.022 #63 |
| +0.148 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.044 #87 |
| +0.295 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.024 #40 |
| −6.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.7 #45 |
| +17.2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.8 #40 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.2% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.7% #60 |
| +8.9% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.9% #87 |
| −1.97 | Points per drive | −0.09 #57 |
| +1.54 | Points per drive allowed | −0.24 #42 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.91 | Line yards per rush | +0.41 #11 |
| +0.49 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.20 #107 |
| +10.1% | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.0% #21 |
| −5.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.6% #83 |
| +2.7% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.4% #23 |
| −2.7% | Havoc created | +1.0% #35 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.011 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.092 #26 |
| +0.156 | Passing explosiveness | +0.046 #101 |
| −0.70 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.04 #46 |
| +0.366 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.071 #95 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% | Run rate | 60% #24 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.7 #59 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WCU | Season to date | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 10.0 / 62.0 | Points for / against | 33.8 / 23.2 |
| -52.0 | Avg margin | +10.6 |
| -15.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.6 |
| 60.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
Western Carolina: last games
No games yet.
Cincinnati: last 1 games
| W34-15 |
