Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
TDECU Stadium · 86° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Southern–Houston) | 6–56 | – | 6–77 |
| Spread | Houston −49.9 | Houston −51.5 | Houston −71 |
| Total | 61.4 | 61.5 | 83 |
| Houston win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Southern +51.5 Lost★ Under 61.5 Lost
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for Southern (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Houston by 49.90%
Southern by 14+
0%
Southern by 1–13
1%
Houston by 1–13
99%
Houston by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Southern | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.281 | Offense EPA / play | +0.013 #50 |
| +0.278 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.035 #67 |
| −17.3% | Offense success rate | +2.1% #38 |
| +9.8% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.3% #70 |
| −0.237 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.035 #80 |
| −0.243 | Passing EPA / play | +0.047 #40 |
| +0.374 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.015 #37 |
| +0.088 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.038 #71 |
| −20.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.0 #49 |
| +20.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.2 #57 |
| Situational | ||
| −16.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.4% #30 |
| +7.6% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.9% #63 |
| −3.35 | Points per drive | −0.30 #71 |
| +2.42 | Points per drive allowed | +0.13 #41 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.88 | Line yards per rush | −0.07 #60 |
| +0.92 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.09 #66 |
| +6.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.3% #60 |
| −9.1% | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.4% #126 |
| +4.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.0% #24 |
| −4.3% | Havoc created | +0.6% #45 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.191 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.078 #108 |
| +0.015 | Passing explosiveness | +0.088 #33 |
| −0.55 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.00 #43 |
| +0.089 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.015 #72 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% | Run rate | 57% #21 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.1 #64 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Southern | Season to date | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 6.0 / 77.0 | Points for / against | 41.0 / 19.8 |
| -71.0 | Avg margin | +21.2 |
| -19.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.6 |
| 58.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.2 |
Southern: last games
No games yet.
Houston: last 1 games
| W33-20 |
