Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium · 72° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Iowa State–Iowa) | 12–34 | – | 13–16 |
| Spread | Iowa −22.6 | Iowa −14 | Iowa −3 |
| Total | 45.7 | 42.5 | 29 |
| Iowa win chance | 93% | – | – |
Line moved from Iowa −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Iowa −14 Lost★ Over 42.5 Lost
Spread: 8.6 pts better than Vegas for Iowa (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Iowa by 22.61%
Iowa State by 14+
6%
Iowa State by 1–13
22%
Iowa by 1–13
71%
Iowa by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Iowa State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.032 #68 | Offense EPA / play | +0.048 #39 |
| +0.011 #56 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.121 #8 |
| −4.3% #111 | Offense success rate | +1.4% #42 |
| +2.1% #68 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.3% #5 |
| +0.010 #54 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.108 #15 |
| −0.072 #92 | Passing EPA / play | +0.012 #56 |
| +0.053 #78 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.054 #26 |
| +0.015 #63 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.160 #5 |
| −2.7 #78 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.5 #26 |
| +1.3 #64 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −9.1 #9 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.4% #103 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.7% #65 |
| +0.3% #52 | Passing-down success allowed | −6.1% #5 |
| −0.56 #87 | Points per drive | +0.64 #32 |
| +0.68 #77 | Points per drive allowed | −0.76 #10 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.25 #96 | Line yards per rush | +0.21 #18 |
| +0.31 #108 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.18 #23 |
| +0.9% #68 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.9% #15 |
| −6.1% #136 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.6% #13 |
| +2.2% #121 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.0% #8 |
| +0.7% #43 | Havoc created | +1.2% #31 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.156 #7 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.199 #4 |
| +0.088 #34 | Passing explosiveness | −0.084 #113 |
| −0.36 #112 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.55 #7 |
| +0.028 #92 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.146 #20 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #32 | Run rate | 55% #30 |
| −31.4 #107 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.8 #81 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Iowa State | Season to date | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 33.6 / 21.2 | Points for / against | 29.0 / 12.6 |
| +12.4 | Avg margin | +16.4 |
| +5.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.6 |
| 58.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.8 |
Iowa State: last 1 games
| W38-10 |
Iowa: last 1 games
| W40-0 |
