Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET
Gesa Field · 55° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Arizona–WSU) | 25–20 | – | 34–24 |
| Spread | Arizona −5.1 | Arizona −11.5 | Arizona −10 |
| Total | 45.8 | 47.5 | 58 |
| Washington State win chance | 37% | – | – |
Line moved from Arizona −13.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WSU +11.5 Won★ Under 47.5 Lost
Spread: 6.4 pts better than Vegas for Washington State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arizona by 5.129%
Arizona by 14+
34%
Arizona by 1–13
26%
Washington State by 1–13
11%
Washington State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arizona | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | WSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.065 #33 | Offense EPA / play | −0.126 #111 |
| +0.017 #55 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.031 #61 |
| +3.4% #28 | Offense success rate | −4.7% #104 |
| −0.5% #41 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.1% #79 |
| +0.029 #45 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.094 #102 |
| +0.056 #39 | Passing EPA / play | −0.132 #107 |
| +0.033 #65 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.120 #106 |
| +0.034 #68 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.044 #40 |
| −0.3 #65 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.3 #117 |
| −3.1 #29 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.7 #62 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.5% #27 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −10.6% #133 |
| +5.2% #104 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.0% #52 |
| +0.06 #55 | Points per drive | −1.08 #115 |
| +0.25 #49 | Points per drive allowed | +0.29 #52 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.07 #38 | Line yards per rush | −0.16 #75 |
| +0.03 #54 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.23 #88 |
| −1.6% #37 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.8% #88 |
| +2.4% #33 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.1% #73 |
| −2.0% #27 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +4.0% #129 |
| +1.2% #34 | Havoc created | −2.2% #102 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.072 #100 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.059 #40 |
| −0.077 #100 | Passing explosiveness | −0.251 #135 |
| −0.11 #64 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.01 #52 |
| +0.093 #115 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.047 #99 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 45% #126 | Run rate | 53% #64 |
| −11.4 #69 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.2 #84 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arizona | Season to date | WSU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 32.4 / 16.6 | Points for / against | 19.0 / 25.0 |
| +15.8 | Avg margin | -6.0 |
| -0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.7 |
| 59.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.2 |
Arizona: last 3 games
| W42-17 | |
| L17-28 | |
| W35-7 |
Washington State: last 3 games
| W48-7 | |
| L7-34 | |
| L10-24 |
