Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Jones AT&T Stadium · 79° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Sam Houston–Texas Tech) | 15–40 | – | 14–49 |
| Spread | Texas Tech −24.6 | Texas Tech −34.5 | Texas Tech −35 |
| Total | 55.1 | 55.5 | 63 |
| Texas Tech win chance | 94% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas Tech −37.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Sam Houston +34.5 Lost★ Under 55.5 Lost
Spread: 9.9 pts better than Vegas for Sam Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas Tech by 24.61%
Sam Houston by 14+
6%
Sam Houston by 1–13
19%
Texas Tech by 1–13
74%
Texas Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Sam Houston | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.062 #88 | Offense EPA / play | +0.053 #38 |
| +0.081 #87 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.035 #34 |
| −1.4% #70 | Offense success rate | +1.3% #45 |
| +1.8% #65 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.9% #13 |
| −0.196 #131 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.039 #41 |
| +0.005 #59 | Passing EPA / play | +0.148 #27 |
| +0.191 #132 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.010 #43 |
| −0.058 #33 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.079 #27 |
| −5.6 #96 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.7 #35 |
| +5.2 #92 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.7 #17 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.8% #64 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.0% #54 |
| +0.5% #57 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.9% #63 |
| −0.96 #111 | Points per drive | +0.15 #47 |
| +1.00 #102 | Points per drive allowed | −0.43 #12 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.69 #132 | Line yards per rush | −0.02 #53 |
| +0.33 #108 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.05 #60 |
| +6.9% #130 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.7% #69 |
| −3.2% #100 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.7% #81 |
| +3.4% #125 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.5% #80 |
| +0.7% #49 | Havoc created | +2.0% #22 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.165 #128 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.004 #65 |
| −0.034 #87 | Passing explosiveness | +0.015 #70 |
| −0.40 #113 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.14 #71 |
| −0.151 #26 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.033 #62 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 41% #135 | Run rate | 52% #73 |
| −18.9 #125 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.8 #43 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Sam Houston | Season to date | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 27.8 / 24.0 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 16.2 |
| +3.8 | Avg margin | +18.6 |
| +14.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.7 |
| 57.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.0 |
Texas Tech: last 3 games
| W28-26 | |
| W35-24 | |
| W33-10 |
