Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium · 86° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Arizona–BYU) | 21–29 | – | 17–28 |
| Spread | BYU −7.8 | BYU −6.5 | BYU −11 |
| Total | 49.3 | 49.5 | 45 |
| BYU win chance | 69% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ BYU −6.5 Won★ Under 49.5 Won
Spread: 1.3 pts better than Vegas for BYU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around BYU by 7.88%
Arizona by 14+
23%
Arizona by 1–13
34%
BYU by 1–13
35%
BYU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arizona | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.047 #89 | Offense EPA / play | +0.109 #18 |
| −0.071 #19 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.092 #13 |
| +3.6% #30 | Offense success rate | +5.8% #12 |
| −4.4% #15 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.6% #29 |
| +0.023 #74 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.178 #10 |
| −0.074 #87 | Passing EPA / play | +0.050 #37 |
| −0.049 #31 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.074 #23 |
| −0.023 #41 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.030 #37 |
| −1.8 #66 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.4 #20 |
| −4.1 #27 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.9 #50 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.8% #72 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.9% #77 |
| +2.0% #89 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.4% #46 |
| −0.32 #73 | Points per drive | +0.75 #29 |
| −0.11 #50 | Points per drive allowed | +0.10 #63 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.38 #15 | Line yards per rush | +0.48 #3 |
| −0.25 #25 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.34 #18 |
| −5.5% #10 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.4% #12 |
| +4.3% #17 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.7% #12 |
| −3.6% #20 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.7% #16 |
| +4.6% #1 | Havoc created | +0.2% #56 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.124 #125 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.069 #39 |
| −0.038 #128 | Passing explosiveness | +0.011 #113 |
| −0.04 #43 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.15 #68 |
| +0.170 #125 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.074 #39 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #117 | Run rate | 59% #36 |
| −21.7 #99 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −43.5 #132 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arizona | Season to date | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 32.4 / 16.6 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 14.2 |
| +15.8 | Avg margin | +23.0 |
| -0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.0 |
| 59.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.8 |
Arizona: last 1 games
| W35-7 |
BYU: last 1 games
| W63-7 |
