Final
Fri, Sep 18, 8:00 PM ET
Jones AT&T Stadium · 87° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Houston–Texas Tech) | 24–32 | – | 26–28 |
| Spread | Texas Tech −7.3 | Texas Tech −7.5 | Texas Tech −2 |
| Total | 56.1 | 52.5 | 54 |
| Texas Tech win chance | 67% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas Tech −13.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Houston +7.5 Won★ Over 52.5 Won
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas Tech by 7.39%
Houston by 14+
23%
Houston by 1–13
34%
Texas Tech by 1–13
34%
Texas Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Houston | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.050 #34 | Offense EPA / play | +0.022 #48 |
| −0.024 #36 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.078 #14 |
| +4.4% #22 | Offense success rate | +0.8% #45 |
| +1.8% #64 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.6% #6 |
| −0.033 #73 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.017 #44 |
| +0.117 #24 | Passing EPA / play | +0.077 #36 |
| −0.029 #36 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.072 #25 |
| −0.058 #29 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.120 #16 |
| +6.6 #22 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.6 #27 |
| +1.1 #61 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.7 #22 |
| Situational | ||
| +8.7% #13 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.0% #59 |
| +0.6% #58 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.6% #37 |
| +1.44 #17 | Points per drive | +0.48 #36 |
| +0.68 #75 | Points per drive allowed | −0.07 #26 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.02 #43 | Line yards per rush | −0.06 #57 |
| −0.26 #17 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.12 #35 |
| −0.3% #59 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.8% #48 |
| +0.1% #55 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #65 |
| −2.4% #20 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.9% #96 |
| +2.4% #19 | Havoc created | +2.7% #16 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.143 #123 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.004 #69 |
| +0.121 #30 | Passing explosiveness | −0.131 #113 |
| −0.11 #65 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.31 #94 |
| −0.234 #8 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.060 #105 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #37 | Run rate | 50% #85 |
| −26.9 #129 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −16.3 #88 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Houston | Season to date | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 41.0 / 19.8 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 16.2 |
| +21.2 | Avg margin | +18.6 |
| +2.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.7 |
| 64.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.0 |
Houston: last 2 games
| W77-6 | |
| W33-20 |
Texas Tech: last 2 games
| W35-24 | |
| W33-10 |
