Final
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
Wembley Stadium · 68° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Arizona State–Kansas) | 33–26 | – | 24–17 |
| Spread | Arizona State −7.0 | Arizona State −5.5 | Arizona State −7 |
| Total | 59.3 | 50.5 | 41 |
| Kansas win chance | 33% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Arizona State −5.5 Won★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 1.5 pts better than Vegas for Arizona State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 8.8 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arizona State by 7.033%
Arizona State by 14+
33%
Arizona State by 1–13
24%
Kansas by 1–13
10%
Kansas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arizona State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.052 #36 | Offense EPA / play | +0.013 #57 |
| −0.079 #19 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.070 #84 |
| +4.5% #23 | Offense success rate | +1.7% #46 |
| −2.9% #28 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.9% #27 |
| +0.039 #60 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.007 #89 |
| +0.073 #33 | Passing EPA / play | +0.007 #52 |
| −0.074 #29 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.004 #55 |
| −0.035 #40 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.220 #126 |
| +7.3 #19 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.2 #56 |
| +1.7 #76 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.2 #95 |
| Situational | ||
| +10.9% #4 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.7% #70 |
| −9.1% #2 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.4% #59 |
| +0.87 #24 | Points per drive | +0.33 #43 |
| +0.04 #67 | Points per drive allowed | +0.26 #81 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.17 #53 | Line yards per rush | +0.13 #61 |
| −0.11 #51 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.37 #14 |
| +0.3% #101 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.8% #27 |
| −1.2% #89 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.7% #15 |
| −1.5% #71 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.2% #108 |
| +0.3% #50 | Havoc created | +1.4% #31 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.008 #80 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.036 #60 |
| +0.149 #55 | Passing explosiveness | +0.239 #26 |
| +0.37 #18 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.31 #90 |
| −0.038 #46 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.196 #128 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #93 | Run rate | 56% #66 |
| −10.5 #67 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −16.3 #95 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arizona State | Season to date | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-0 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 3-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 33.2 / 31.8 | Points for / against | 36.0 / 17.0 |
| +1.5 | Avg margin | +19.0 |
| -7.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.9 |
| 55.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Arizona State: last 2 games
| L20-48 | |
| W70-7 |
Kansas: last 2 games
| L21-38 | |
| W51-6 |
