Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET
Nippert Stadium · 65° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Kansas State–Cincinnati) | 32–28 | – | 26–31 |
| Spread | Kansas State −4.0 | Kansas State −6 | Cincinnati −5 |
| Total | 59.7 | 55.5 | 57 |
| Cincinnati win chance | 40% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Cincinnati +6 Won★ Over 55.5 Won
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for Cincinnati (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.2 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kansas State by 4.027%
Kansas State by 14+
33%
Kansas State by 1–13
27%
Cincinnati by 1–13
13%
Cincinnati by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kansas State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.058 #37 | Offense EPA / play | +0.083 #29 |
| −0.029 #42 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.095 #97 |
| +2.2% #44 | Offense success rate | +3.5% #32 |
| −2.0% #36 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.8% #104 |
| +0.101 #33 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.099 #35 |
| +0.025 #44 | Passing EPA / play | +0.005 #51 |
| +0.090 #104 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.156 #129 |
| −0.103 #20 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.079 #84 |
| +5.4 #22 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.1 #40 |
| −1.3 #54 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.3 #68 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.2% #21 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.1% #64 |
| +3.3% #101 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.3% #94 |
| +1.26 #16 | Points per drive | +0.26 #41 |
| +0.15 #75 | Points per drive allowed | +0.17 #78 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.00 #87 | Line yards per rush | +0.34 #27 |
| +0.09 #80 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.41 #127 |
| +0.9% #113 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.7% #45 |
| −0.4% #77 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.1% #101 |
| −2.3% #50 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.8% #22 |
| +2.7% #13 | Havoc created | +1.2% #31 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.178 #13 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.076 #39 |
| +0.075 #82 | Passing explosiveness | −0.049 #123 |
| +0.78 #6 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.15 #29 |
| −0.040 #48 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.041 #82 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #63 | Run rate | 59% #37 |
| −17.6 #120 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −16.6 #116 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kansas State | Season to date | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 40.5 / 15.2 | Points for / against | 33.8 / 23.2 |
| +25.2 | Avg margin | +10.6 |
| +3.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.6 |
| 62.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
Kansas State: last 3 games
| W31-20 | |
| W34-7 | |
| W71-3 |
Cincinnati: last 3 games
| W35-31 | |
| W62-10 | |
| W34-15 |
