Final
Sat, Oct 3, 11:00 PM ET
Arizona Stadium · 79° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Cincinnati–Arizona) | 25–34 | – | 7–34 |
| Spread | Arizona −8.6 | Arizona −7 | Arizona −27 |
| Total | 59.0 | 56.5 | 41 |
| Arizona win chance | 70% | – | – |
Line moved from Arizona −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Arizona −7 Won★ Over 56.5 Lost
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for Arizona (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arizona by 8.68%
Cincinnati by 14+
22%
Cincinnati by 1–13
33%
Arizona by 1–13
37%
Arizona by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Cincinnati | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.125 #21 | Offense EPA / play | +0.068 #31 |
| +0.121 #99 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.006 #55 |
| +2.5% #38 | Offense success rate | +2.9% #33 |
| +5.8% #106 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.6% #35 |
| +0.073 #33 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.014 #57 |
| +0.098 #34 | Passing EPA / play | +0.071 #43 |
| +0.164 #120 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.008 #53 |
| +0.107 #90 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.017 #57 |
| +3.5 #38 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.8 #53 |
| +2.0 #73 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.2 #42 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.3% #65 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.5% #20 |
| +5.9% #110 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.3% #104 |
| +0.24 #45 | Points per drive | +0.14 #55 |
| +0.58 #71 | Points per drive allowed | +0.36 #54 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.13 #31 | Line yards per rush | +0.11 #33 |
| +0.59 #132 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.13 #33 |
| −0.5% #51 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.7% #23 |
| −5.4% #125 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.4% #14 |
| −2.7% #22 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #34 |
| −1.2% #86 | Havoc created | +0.7% #42 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.129 #18 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.132 #119 |
| −0.054 #92 | Passing explosiveness | +0.010 #66 |
| +0.35 #15 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.41 #112 |
| −0.013 #77 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.121 #118 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #20 | Run rate | 44% #129 |
| −13.2 #100 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.6 #84 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Cincinnati | Season to date | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 4-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 33.8 / 23.2 | Points for / against | 32.4 / 16.6 |
| +10.6 | Avg margin | +15.8 |
| +1.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.2 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.2 |
Cincinnati: last 4 games
| W31-26 | |
| W35-31 | |
| W62-10 | |
| W34-15 |
Arizona: last 4 games
| W34-24 | |
| W42-17 | |
| L17-28 | |
| W35-7 |
