Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium · 66° · wind 14 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (West Virginia–Iowa State) | 25–30 | – | 42–45 |
| Spread | Iowa State −5.5 | Iowa State −3 | Iowa State −3 |
| Total | 54.7 | 53.5 | 87 |
| Iowa State win chance | 63% | – | – |
Line moved from Iowa State −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Iowa State −3 Push★ Over 53.5 Won
Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for Iowa State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.2 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Iowa State by 5.511%
West Virginia by 14+
25%
West Virginia by 1–13
34%
Iowa State by 1–13
30%
Iowa State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| West Virginia | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.016 #56 | Offense EPA / play | −0.002 #64 |
| +0.112 #103 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.019 #49 |
| +0.2% #69 | Offense success rate | −1.0% #81 |
| +4.2% #105 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.5% #63 |
| +0.095 #44 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.050 #60 |
| −0.003 #55 | Passing EPA / play | −0.012 #62 |
| −0.033 #42 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.002 #59 |
| +0.207 #122 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.006 #51 |
| +2.7 #42 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.6 #52 |
| +3.8 #91 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.1 #34 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.9% #39 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.1% #106 |
| −1.1% #55 | Passing-down success allowed | −7.4% #5 |
| +0.18 #52 | Points per drive | +0.02 #62 |
| +0.17 #76 | Points per drive allowed | −0.40 #35 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.07 #73 | Line yards per rush | +0.07 #74 |
| −0.12 #50 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.00 #70 |
| −2.8% #55 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.7% #90 |
| +2.9% #31 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.8% #100 |
| −3.5% #29 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.0% #98 |
| −0.6% #71 | Havoc created | −0.8% #78 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.099 #34 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.126 #26 |
| +0.558 #1 | Passing explosiveness | +0.108 #67 |
| +0.23 #21 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.11 #35 |
| −0.083 #33 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.009 #72 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 74% #5 | Run rate | 61% #23 |
| −8.4 #58 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.3 #39 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| West Virginia | Season to date | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 5-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 37.4 / 28.8 | Points for / against | 33.6 / 21.2 |
| +8.6 | Avg margin | +12.4 |
| -1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.7 |
| 65.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
West Virginia: last 4 games
| L24-41 | |
| W38-27 | |
| W52-7 | |
| W31-24 |
Iowa State: last 4 games
| L17-31 | |
| W55-7 | |
| L13-16 | |
| W38-10 |
