Final
Fri, Sep 4, 9:00 PM ET
Stanford Stadium · 66° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Miami–Stanford) | 35–16 | – | 45–6 |
| Spread | Miami −18.7 | Miami −24.5 | Miami −39 |
| Total | 50.3 | 46.5 | 51 |
| Stanford win chance | 12% | – | – |
Line moved from Miami −21.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Stanford +24.5 Lost★ Over 46.5 Won
Spread: 5.8 pts better than Vegas for Stanford (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Miami by 18.762%
Miami by 14+
26%
Miami by 1–13
10%
Stanford by 1–13
2%
Stanford by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Miami | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.126 #12 | Offense EPA / play | −0.037 #81 |
| −0.134 #7 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.033 #70 |
| +6.2% #10 | Offense success rate | −1.6% #94 |
| −6.1% #9 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.4% #63 |
| +0.104 #19 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.014 #102 |
| +0.157 #8 | Passing EPA / play | −0.042 #76 |
| −0.104 #8 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.020 #37 |
| −0.137 #7 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.058 #73 |
| +7.2 #13 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.9 #81 |
| −10.6 #3 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.4 #71 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.4% #13 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.1% #87 |
| −4.0% #11 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.9% #73 |
| +1.00 #13 | Points per drive | −0.25 #79 |
| −1.16 #3 | Points per drive allowed | +0.19 #70 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.34 #7 | Line yards per rush | −0.05 #117 |
| −0.35 #7 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.03 #59 |
| −4.7% #6 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.7% #102 |
| +2.8% #13 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.5% #61 |
| −3.9% #7 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.6% #99 |
| +2.0% #12 | Havoc created | −0.7% #77 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.032 #132 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.009 #77 |
| +0.061 #116 | Passing explosiveness | +0.084 #92 |
| +0.02 #36 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #86 |
| −0.051 #7 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.005 #64 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #70 | Run rate | 53% #93 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Miami | Season to date | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 3-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 49.6 / 9.8 | Points for / against | 17.4 / 38.2 |
| +39.8 | Avg margin | -20.8 |
| +7.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -11.4 |
| 48.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.6 |
Miami: last games
No games yet.
Stanford: last 1 games
| W37-27 |
