Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET
JMA Wireless Dome · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (New Hampshire–Syracuse) | 8–45 | – | 3–66 |
| Spread | Syracuse −36.8 | Syracuse −35.5 | Syracuse −63 |
| Total | 53.1 | 56.5 | 69 |
| Syracuse win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Syracuse −32.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Syracuse −35.5 Won★ Under 56.5 Lost
Spread: 1.3 pts better than Vegas for Syracuse (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Syracuse by 36.80%
New Hampshire by 14+
1%
New Hampshire by 1–13
7%
Syracuse by 1–13
92%
Syracuse by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| New Hampshire | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.213 | Offense EPA / play | −0.041 #83 |
| +0.259 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.037 #71 |
| −12.7% | Offense success rate | −0.6% #75 |
| +11.8% | Defense success rate allowed | +0.8% #70 |
| −0.214 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.005 #89 |
| −0.212 | Passing EPA / play | −0.067 #85 |
| +0.373 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.005 #43 |
| +0.095 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.055 #69 |
| −19.7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.9 #72 |
| +13.4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.6 #81 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.8% #72 |
| +7.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.5% #68 |
| −2.19 | Points per drive | −0.13 #72 |
| +2.01 | Points per drive allowed | +0.71 #113 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.55 | Line yards per rush | −0.02 #100 |
| +0.84 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.00 #67 |
| +2.4% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.4% #76 |
| −8.1% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.4% #34 |
| −3.9% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #106 |
| −11.8% | Havoc created | −1.0% #88 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.049 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.003 #99 |
| +0.186 | Passing explosiveness | +0.062 #115 |
| −0.62 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.11 #63 |
| −0.110 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.006 #66 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% | Run rate | 54% #86 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| New Hampshire | Season to date | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 3.0 / 66.0 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 23.0 |
| -63.0 | Avg margin | +11.8 |
| -27.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.9 |
| 50.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 72.5 |
New Hampshire: last games
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Syracuse: last games
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