Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
Wallace Wade Stadium · 86° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Tulane–Duke) | 22–34 | – | 3–17 |
| Spread | Duke −11.9 | Duke −9.5 | Duke −14 |
| Total | 56.6 | 51.5 | 20 |
| Duke win chance | 77% | – | – |
Line moved from Duke −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Duke −9.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Lost
Spread: 2.4 pts better than Vegas for Duke (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.1 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Duke by 11.95%
Tulane by 14+
18%
Tulane by 1–13
32%
Duke by 1–13
45%
Duke by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Tulane | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.036 #78 | Offense EPA / play | +0.053 #32 |
| +0.041 #74 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.025 #63 |
| −1.0% #82 | Offense success rate | +2.9% #30 |
| +2.7% #98 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.4% #61 |
| −0.016 #104 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.047 #52 |
| −0.062 #84 | Passing EPA / play | +0.050 #29 |
| +0.030 #73 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.001 #48 |
| +0.084 #87 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.053 #68 |
| −3.4 #88 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.2 #21 |
| +0.9 #68 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.9 #69 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.7% #81 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.2% #40 |
| +2.3% #107 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.2% #60 |
| −0.38 #86 | Points per drive | +0.34 #35 |
| +0.25 #76 | Points per drive allowed | +0.03 #53 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.04 #84 | Line yards per rush | +0.14 #53 |
| +0.07 #88 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.16 #26 |
| −1.1% #90 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.4% #78 |
| −0.3% #80 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.7% #15 |
| −1.4% #66 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.1% #42 |
| −0.9% #86 | Havoc created | +0.9% #27 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.003 #89 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.015 #61 |
| +0.079 #98 | Passing explosiveness | +0.177 #20 |
| −0.24 #102 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.05 #31 |
| +0.003 #58 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.024 #101 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #65 | Run rate | 54% #89 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Tulane | Season to date | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 4-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 18.8 / 23.2 | Points for / against | 36.2 / 11.0 |
| -4.5 | Avg margin | +25.2 |
| -3.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +11.1 |
| 61.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
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