Final
Thu, Sep 10, 8:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium · 80° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Florida A&M–Miami) | 0–59 | – | 7–77 |
| Spread | Miami −62.6 | Miami −59.5 | Miami −70 |
| Total | 55.1 | 66.5 | 84 |
| Miami win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Miami −55.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Miami −59.5 Won★ Under 66.5 Lost
Spread: 3.1 pts better than Vegas for Miami (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 11.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Miami by 62.60%
Florida A&M by 14+
0%
Florida A&M by 1–13
0%
Miami by 1–13
100%
Miami by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Florida A&M | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.373 | Offense EPA / play | +0.206 #2 |
| +0.292 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.101 #9 |
| −17.9% | Offense success rate | +9.3% #3 |
| +14.2% | Defense success rate allowed | −5.5% #10 |
| −0.380 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.106 #26 |
| −0.311 | Passing EPA / play | +0.322 #3 |
| +0.255 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.073 #24 |
| +0.187 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.129 #11 |
| −25.7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.9 #11 |
| +17.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −14.1 #1 |
| Situational | ||
| −17.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.5% #22 |
| +15.0% | Passing-down success allowed | −4.2% #20 |
| −3.64 | Points per drive | +1.69 #9 |
| +2.13 | Points per drive allowed | −1.43 #1 |
| Trenches | ||
| −2.13 | Line yards per rush | +0.31 #30 |
| +0.73 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.34 #17 |
| +15.6% | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.0% #36 |
| −6.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.7% #21 |
| +8.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −5.9% #2 |
| −6.6% | Havoc created | +0.9% #37 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.012 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.089 #117 |
| +0.320 | Passing explosiveness | +0.127 #58 |
| −0.35 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.29 #96 |
| +0.045 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.150 #13 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% | Run rate | 54% #80 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.1 #74 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Florida A&M | Season to date | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 7.0 / 77.0 | Points for / against | 49.6 / 9.8 |
| -70.0 | Avg margin | +39.8 |
| -10.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.8 |
| 53.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.8 |
Florida A&M: last games
No games yet.
Miami: last 1 games
| W45-6 |
