Final
Fri, Sep 11, 7:30 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · 70° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Rutgers–Boston College) | 25–32 | – | 21–28 |
| Spread | Boston College −7.1 | Boston College −3 | Boston College −7 |
| Total | 56.3 | 53.5 | 49 |
| Boston College win chance | 67% | – | – |
Line moved from Boston College −3.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Boston College −3 Won★ Over 53.5 Lost
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for Boston College (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Boston College by 7.110%
Rutgers by 14+
23%
Rutgers by 1–13
33%
Boston College by 1–13
33%
Boston College by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Rutgers | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.067 #105 | Offense EPA / play | −0.050 #92 |
| +0.169 #132 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.050 #76 |
| −0.2% #63 | Offense success rate | −0.0% #61 |
| +6.4% #134 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.5% #39 |
| −0.143 #135 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.034 #64 |
| −0.050 #80 | Passing EPA / play | −0.086 #93 |
| +0.118 #121 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.055 #93 |
| +0.232 #130 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.029 #71 |
| −4.3 #94 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.7 #80 |
| +7.9 #122 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.0 #89 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.2% #95 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.0% #49 |
| +4.4% #118 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.1% #73 |
| −0.64 #99 | Points per drive | −0.38 #79 |
| +0.59 #102 | Points per drive allowed | +0.05 #59 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.20 #123 | Line yards per rush | +0.16 #58 |
| +0.26 #119 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.06 #83 |
| −0.8% #85 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.5% #72 |
| −0.5% #79 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.3% #99 |
| +2.0% #133 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.6% #120 |
| −3.4% #128 | Havoc created | −1.6% #99 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.085 #114 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.055 #46 |
| +0.174 #37 | Passing explosiveness | +0.188 #33 |
| −0.51 #130 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.14 #62 |
| +0.029 #79 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.052 #47 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #98 | Run rate | 53% #96 |
| −14.1 #80 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.5 #31 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Rutgers | Season to date | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-3 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 0-5 |
| 30.0 / 32.2 | Points for / against | 19.0 / 23.4 |
| -2.2 | Avg margin | -4.4 |
| -6.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.9 |
| 52.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.0 |
Rutgers: last 1 games
| L21-37 |
Boston College: last 1 games
| L15-34 |
