Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Lane Stadium · 78° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Old Dominion–Virginia Tech) | 18–33 | – | 21–44 |
| Spread | Virginia Tech −15.8 | Virginia Tech −17.5 | Virginia Tech −23 |
| Total | 51.0 | 47.5 | 65 |
| Virginia Tech win chance | 84% | – | – |
Line moved from Virginia Tech −14 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Old Dominion +17.5 Lost★ Over 47.5 Won
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Old Dominion (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Virginia Tech by 15.83%
Old Dominion by 14+
13%
Old Dominion by 1–13
29%
Virginia Tech by 1–13
55%
Virginia Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Old Dominion | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.131 #118 | Offense EPA / play | +0.074 #30 |
| +0.002 #50 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.023 #36 |
| −4.1% #108 | Offense success rate | +4.5% #17 |
| +2.0% #65 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.6% #38 |
| −0.099 #105 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.199 #2 |
| −0.132 #110 | Passing EPA / play | −0.010 #64 |
| +0.002 #48 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.013 #39 |
| −0.005 #52 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.028 #70 |
| −6.2 #104 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.4 #25 |
| +1.5 #65 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.0 #71 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.6% #45 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.6% #74 |
| +0.6% #57 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.3% #53 |
| −1.00 #117 | Points per drive | +1.52 #15 |
| +0.63 #73 | Points per drive allowed | +0.55 #66 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.34 #112 | Line yards per rush | +0.18 #20 |
| +0.22 #97 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.18 #24 |
| +4.1% #114 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.4% #37 |
| −1.8% #89 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.4% #17 |
| +1.4% #104 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.5% #32 |
| +1.7% #26 | Havoc created | +1.8% #24 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.001 #62 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.121 #15 |
| +0.119 #23 | Passing explosiveness | −0.073 #107 |
| −0.17 #71 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.53 #8 |
| −0.220 #8 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.098 #43 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 61% #7 | Run rate | 52% #75 |
| −29.4 #105 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −49.0 #136 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Old Dominion | Season to date | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 0-5 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 19.8 / 32.4 | Points for / against | 41.2 / 19.8 |
| -12.6 | Avg margin | +21.4 |
| -16.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.3 |
| 51.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.0 |
Old Dominion: last 1 games
| W31-10 |
Virginia Tech: last 1 games
| W73-3 |
