Final
Fri, Sep 11, 7:00 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium · 81° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Richmond–NC State) | 9–48 | – | 0–73 |
| Spread | NC State −39.6 | NC State −33.5 | NC State −73 |
| Total | 57.1 | 50.5 | 73 |
| NC State win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from NC State −30.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NC State −33.5 Won★ Over 50.5 Won
Spread: 6.1 pts better than Vegas for NC State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.6 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NC State by 39.60%
Richmond by 14+
1%
Richmond by 1–13
5%
NC State by 1–13
94%
NC State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Richmond | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.306 | Offense EPA / play | +0.009 #53 |
| +0.211 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.047 #75 |
| −15.8% | Offense success rate | +1.9% #49 |
| +6.8% | Defense success rate allowed | +0.1% #59 |
| −0.240 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.025 #71 |
| −0.290 | Passing EPA / play | +0.025 #47 |
| +0.281 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.025 #72 |
| +0.068 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.157 #113 |
| −16.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.2 #53 |
| +12.9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.6 #54 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.8% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.9% #63 |
| +1.3% | Passing-down success allowed | −3.1% #26 |
| −3.07 | Points per drive | +0.01 #51 |
| +1.55 | Points per drive allowed | −0.21 #46 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.88 | Line yards per rush | +0.33 #27 |
| +0.61 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.03 #59 |
| +8.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.5% #44 |
| −6.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.8% #51 |
| +4.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #106 |
| −2.4% | Havoc created | −2.1% #111 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.122 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.189 #132 |
| +0.255 | Passing explosiveness | +0.048 #99 |
| −0.50 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.04 #36 |
| −0.093 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.112 #114 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% | Run rate | 53% #108 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +8.4 #17 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Richmond | Season to date | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 0.0 / 73.0 | Points for / against | 36.8 / 25.6 |
| -73.0 | Avg margin | +11.2 |
| -39.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.5 |
| 66.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
Richmond: last games
No games yet.
NC State: last 1 games
| L8-34 |
