Final
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET
Wallace Wade Stadium · 84° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Stanford–Duke) | 19–35 | – | 7–35 |
| Spread | Duke −16.3 | Duke −9.5 | Duke −28 |
| Total | 53.6 | 51.5 | 42 |
| Duke win chance | 84% | – | – |
Line moved from Duke −10 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Duke −9.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Lost
Spread: 6.8 pts better than Vegas for Duke (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Duke by 16.33%
Stanford by 14+
13%
Stanford by 1–13
29%
Duke by 1–13
56%
Duke by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Stanford | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.019 #52 | Offense EPA / play | −0.014 #68 |
| +0.114 #111 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.063 #28 |
| −1.8% #85 | Offense success rate | −2.2% #90 |
| +2.1% #83 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.4% #54 |
| +0.001 #81 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.033 #61 |
| +0.038 #39 | Passing EPA / play | −0.061 #79 |
| +0.006 #61 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.097 #18 |
| +0.185 #116 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.071 #25 |
| −5.1 #100 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.8 #48 |
| +5.9 #107 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.2 #23 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.2% #117 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.9% #100 |
| +1.3% #77 | Passing-down success allowed | −7.1% #8 |
| −0.83 #106 | Points per drive | −0.17 #62 |
| +0.58 #102 | Points per drive allowed | −0.56 #21 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.17 #115 | Line yards per rush | +0.03 #87 |
| +0.05 #73 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.00 #61 |
| −0.2% #94 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.1% #112 |
| −3.6% #119 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.8% #122 |
| −3.1% #32 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.7% #22 |
| −2.2% #108 | Havoc created | +0.4% #49 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.007 #76 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.094 #30 |
| +0.079 #81 | Passing explosiveness | +0.030 #97 |
| −0.13 #65 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.01 #48 |
| −0.030 #49 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.097 #27 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #130 | Run rate | 60% #30 |
| +4.1 #13 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.2 #30 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Stanford | Season to date | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-0 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 17.4 / 38.2 | Points for / against | 36.2 / 11.0 |
| -20.8 | Avg margin | +25.2 |
| -11.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +11.1 |
| 52.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
