Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET
SECU Stadium · 72° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Virginia Tech–Maryland) | 27–31 | – | 35–26 |
| Spread | Maryland −4.0 | Virginia Tech −2.5 | Virginia Tech −9 |
| Total | 57.8 | 53.5 | 61 |
| Maryland win chance | 60% | – | – |
Line moved from Virginia Tech −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Maryland +2.5 Lost★ Over 53.5 Won
Spread: 6.5 pts better than Vegas for Maryland (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.3 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Maryland by 4.013%
Virginia Tech by 14+
27%
Virginia Tech by 1–13
33%
Maryland by 1–13
27%
Maryland by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Virginia Tech | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.098 #23 | Offense EPA / play | +0.016 #52 |
| +0.026 #58 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.044 #29 |
| +2.5% #32 | Offense success rate | −0.4% #67 |
| −0.3% #45 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.9% #36 |
| +0.127 #15 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.004 #58 |
| +0.056 #38 | Passing EPA / play | +0.005 #56 |
| +0.017 #54 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.084 #19 |
| +0.082 #82 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.002 #50 |
| +7.7 #19 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.4 #32 |
| +4.2 #90 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.7 #41 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.4% #36 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.7% #42 |
| +1.1% #63 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.2% #75 |
| +1.71 #11 | Points per drive | +0.45 #37 |
| +0.88 #87 | Points per drive allowed | +0.20 #46 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.15 #75 | Line yards per rush | −0.06 #61 |
| −0.90 #3 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.38 #11 |
| +3.6% #109 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.2% #72 |
| +6.8% #3 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.6% #10 |
| −0.9% #46 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.0% #70 |
| +4.6% #6 | Havoc created | +1.1% #43 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.077 #30 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.166 #8 |
| +0.075 #46 | Passing explosiveness | −0.052 #87 |
| +0.09 #40 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.68 #6 |
| −0.051 #56 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.141 #128 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #116 | Run rate | 42% #135 |
| −30.6 #134 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −30.6 #133 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Virginia Tech | Season to date | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 41.2 / 19.8 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 30.2 |
| +21.4 | Avg margin | +0.2 |
| +3.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.1 |
| 65.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.2 |
Virginia Tech: last 2 games
| W44-21 | |
| W73-3 |
