Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · 67° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Stanford–Wake Forest) | 20–36 | – | 3–57 |
| Spread | Wake Forest −15.7 | Wake Forest −14.5 | Wake Forest −54 |
| Total | 55.9 | 54.5 | 60 |
| Wake Forest win chance | 84% | – | – |
Line moved from Wake Forest −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Wake Forest −14.5 Won★ Over 54.5 Won
Spread: 1.2 pts better than Vegas for Wake Forest (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wake Forest by 15.73%
Stanford by 14+
13%
Stanford by 1–13
29%
Wake Forest by 1–13
54%
Wake Forest by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Stanford | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.009 #59 | Offense EPA / play | +0.085 #28 |
| +0.144 #119 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.056 #31 |
| −2.7% #95 | Offense success rate | +1.7% #47 |
| +3.3% #94 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.8% #47 |
| −0.041 #101 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.070 #52 |
| +0.066 #40 | Passing EPA / play | +0.097 #31 |
| +0.073 #93 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.070 #28 |
| +0.200 #121 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.078 #29 |
| −4.6 #91 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.1 #56 |
| +5.1 #100 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.3 #40 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.3% #108 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.6% #28 |
| +5.4% #124 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.5% #76 |
| −0.72 #102 | Points per drive | −0.19 #73 |
| +0.42 #94 | Points per drive allowed | −0.68 #20 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.19 #116 | Line yards per rush | +0.19 #52 |
| +0.13 #88 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.33 #19 |
| +2.7% #121 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.5% #50 |
| −3.7% #118 | Opponent runs stuffed | +6.4% #6 |
| −2.5% #42 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.1% #31 |
| −1.4% #92 | Havoc created | −1.0% #82 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.026 #61 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.017 #84 |
| +0.182 #43 | Passing explosiveness | +0.265 #23 |
| −0.17 #72 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.01 #48 |
| +0.076 #98 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.297 #2 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #129 | Run rate | 55% #84 |
| +2.6 #10 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.5 #16 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Stanford | Season to date | Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 17.4 / 38.2 | Points for / against | 36.6 / 23.0 |
| -20.8 | Avg margin | +13.6 |
| -11.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +11.1 |
| 52.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.0 |
Stanford: last 4 games
| W34-27 | |
| L7-35 | |
| L6-45 | |
| W37-27 |
Wake Forest: last 4 games
| W30-27 | |
| L20-33 | |
| W38-36 | |
| W38-16 |
