Final
Thu, Sep 3, 6:00 PM ET
SHI Stadium · 80° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Massachusetts–Rutgers) | 11–47 | – | 37–21 |
| Spread | Rutgers −36.0 | Rutgers −29.5 | Massachusetts −16 |
| Total | 57.5 | 55.5 | 58 |
| Rutgers win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Rutgers −30.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Rutgers −29.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Won
Spread: 6.5 pts better than Vegas for Rutgers (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Rutgers by 36.00%
Massachusetts by 14+
1%
Massachusetts by 1–13
7%
Rutgers by 1–13
91%
Rutgers by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Massachusetts | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.168 #138 | Offense EPA / play | +0.052 #33 |
| +0.221 #138 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.062 #86 |
| −6.9% #138 | Offense success rate | +3.1% #26 |
| +8.0% #138 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.2% #77 |
| −0.070 #135 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.048 #51 |
| −0.209 #137 | Passing EPA / play | +0.057 #25 |
| +0.135 #137 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.051 #94 |
| +0.281 #138 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.052 #67 |
| −12.5 #138 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.5 #40 |
| +14.8 #138 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.5 #74 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.0% #135 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.1% #30 |
| +5.5% #137 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.4% #43 |
| −1.33 #138 | Points per drive | +0.45 #30 |
| +2.06 #138 | Points per drive allowed | +0.16 #66 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.24 #136 | Line yards per rush | +0.17 #43 |
| +0.47 #138 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.00 #68 |
| +1.7% #137 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.6% #17 |
| −5.5% #138 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.3% #38 |
| +1.5% #136 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #53 |
| −3.3% #135 | Havoc created | −0.6% #73 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.006 #82 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.020 #118 |
| +0.031 #128 | Passing explosiveness | +0.123 #51 |
| −0.34 #125 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.15 #83 |
| +0.149 #138 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.002 #55 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #102 | Run rate | 57% #39 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Massachusetts | Season to date | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-3 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 31.8 / 17.8 | Points for / against | 30.0 / 32.2 |
| +14.0 | Avg margin | -2.2 |
| +6.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.9 |
| 48.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.2 |
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