Final
Thu, Sep 3, 9:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · 84° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UAB–Illinois) | 17–38 | – | 23–42 |
| Spread | Illinois −20.6 | Illinois −25.5 | Illinois −19 |
| Total | 55.1 | 53.5 | 65 |
| Illinois win chance | 90% | – | – |
Line moved from Illinois −27.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UAB +25.5 Won★ Over 53.5 Won
Spread: 4.9 pts better than Vegas for UAB (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 1.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Illinois by 20.62%
UAB by 14+
8%
UAB by 1–13
24%
Illinois by 1–13
66%
Illinois by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UAB | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.090 #109 | Offense EPA / play | +0.055 #28 |
| +0.141 #123 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.024 #51 |
| −3.0% #94 | Offense success rate | +3.5% #20 |
| +6.4% #124 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.3% #54 |
| −0.057 #89 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.002 #54 |
| −0.093 #107 | Passing EPA / play | +0.099 #16 |
| +0.110 #119 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.009 #32 |
| +0.125 #111 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.021 #52 |
| −4.4 #93 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.5 #32 |
| +9.6 #128 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.7 #32 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.2% #72 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.5% #23 |
| +3.0% #91 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.3% #60 |
| −0.52 #90 | Points per drive | +0.71 #19 |
| +1.40 #122 | Points per drive allowed | +0.24 #46 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.14 #72 | Line yards per rush | −0.03 #47 |
| +0.32 #120 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.03 #51 |
| +1.2% #74 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.2% #48 |
| −2.9% #119 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.3% #56 |
| +0.1% #75 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.2% #66 |
| −3.1% #126 | Havoc created | +0.4% #43 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.014 #90 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.007 #61 |
| −0.012 #97 | Passing explosiveness | +0.017 #54 |
| −0.15 #84 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.12 #76 |
| +0.064 #137 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.102 #1 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #127 | Run rate | 53% #42 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UAB | Season to date | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 24.0 / 23.4 | Points for / against | 30.6 / 26.0 |
| +0.6 | Avg margin | +4.6 |
| +0.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.4 |
| 64.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
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