Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 85° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (North Texas–Indiana) | 14–43 | – | 16–52 |
| Spread | Indiana −28.9 | Indiana −39.5 | Indiana −36 |
| Total | 56.9 | 57.5 | 68 |
| Indiana win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Indiana −40.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ North Texas +39.5 Won★ Under 57.5 Lost
Spread: 10.6 pts better than Vegas for North Texas (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Indiana by 28.90%
North Texas by 14+
3%
North Texas by 1–13
14%
Indiana by 1–13
82%
Indiana by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| North Texas | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.006 #60 | Offense EPA / play | +0.145 #12 |
| +0.082 #85 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.092 #11 |
| +0.1% #51 | Offense success rate | +6.7% #7 |
| +4.2% #95 | Defense success rate allowed | −4.2% #12 |
| −0.009 #59 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.068 #21 |
| −0.037 #79 | Passing EPA / play | +0.162 #9 |
| +0.075 #93 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.106 #6 |
| +0.076 #80 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.057 #21 |
| +1.7 #47 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.0 #3 |
| +5.7 #95 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.0 #4 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.3% #59 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.1% #9 |
| +3.2% #95 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.7% #21 |
| −0.07 #61 | Points per drive | +1.77 #4 |
| +0.85 #83 | Points per drive allowed | −0.61 #11 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.08 #54 | Line yards per rush | +0.12 #22 |
| +0.21 #93 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.36 #4 |
| +0.8% #62 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.5% #15 |
| −1.9% #92 | Opponent runs stuffed | +5.3% #1 |
| −1.1% #32 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.2% #3 |
| −1.8% #101 | Havoc created | +4.8% #3 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.003 #52 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.004 #33 |
| +0.007 #69 | Passing explosiveness | +0.004 #76 |
| −0.07 #62 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.10 #27 |
| +0.011 #124 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.040 #47 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #101 | Run rate | 55% #29 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| North Texas | Season to date | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 40.6 / 33.0 | Points for / against | 44.2 / 10.8 |
| +7.6 | Avg margin | +33.4 |
| +8.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.9 |
| 65.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.2 |
North Texas: last games
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Indiana: last games
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