Final
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET
SECU Stadium · 73° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Hampton–Maryland) | 5–51 | – | 0–62 |
| Spread | Maryland −45.7 | Maryland −45.5 | Maryland −62 |
| Total | 56.7 | 56.5 | 62 |
| Maryland win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Maryland −45.5 Won★ Over 56.5 Won
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for Maryland (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Maryland by 45.70%
Hampton by 14+
0%
Hampton by 1–13
2%
Maryland by 1–13
98%
Maryland by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Hampton | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.272 | Offense EPA / play | −0.008 #62 |
| +0.322 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.001 #38 |
| −13.6% | Offense success rate | −1.3% #68 |
| +15.0% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.5% #61 |
| −0.236 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.039 #73 |
| −0.310 | Passing EPA / play | −0.005 #60 |
| +0.300 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.017 #51 |
| +0.324 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.010 #36 |
| −21.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.1 #57 |
| +23.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.3 #50 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.2% #36 |
| +13.4% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.1% #56 |
| −2.43 | Points per drive | +0.07 #49 |
| +3.73 | Points per drive allowed | +0.22 #44 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.88 | Line yards per rush | −0.08 #55 |
| +0.89 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.07 #58 |
| +7.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.4% #51 |
| −7.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #71 |
| −0.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.0% #71 |
| −8.8% | Havoc created | −0.8% #76 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.038 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.016 #94 |
| −0.046 | Passing explosiveness | +0.012 #61 |
| −0.47 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.03 #49 |
| −0.016 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.031 #60 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% | Run rate | 43% #136 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Hampton | Season to date | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 0.0 / 62.0 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 30.2 |
| -62.0 | Avg margin | +0.2 |
| -16.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.1 |
| 46.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.2 |
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