Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 89° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ohio–Nebraska) | 19–33 | – | 21–49 |
| Spread | Nebraska −13.3 | Nebraska −23.5 | Nebraska −28 |
| Total | 52.3 | 47.5 | 70 |
| Nebraska win chance | 80% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ohio +23.5 Lost★ Over 47.5 Won
Spread: 10.2 pts better than Vegas for Ohio (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 4.8 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Nebraska by 13.34%
Ohio by 14+
16%
Ohio by 1–13
32%
Nebraska by 1–13
48%
Nebraska by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ohio | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.053 #83 | Offense EPA / play | +0.032 #44 |
| +0.090 #90 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.008 #39 |
| −1.8% #77 | Offense success rate | +2.7% #25 |
| +4.6% #104 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.1% #40 |
| −0.030 #70 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.013 #47 |
| −0.096 #109 | Passing EPA / play | +0.042 #34 |
| +0.095 #107 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.045 #67 |
| +0.091 #91 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.027 #31 |
| −3.5 #88 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.4 #33 |
| +3.4 #79 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.7 #38 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.2% #80 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.4% #32 |
| +3.0% #92 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.9% #53 |
| −0.54 #92 | Points per drive | +0.62 #22 |
| +0.82 #82 | Points per drive allowed | +0.08 #32 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.12 #63 | Line yards per rush | +0.10 #27 |
| +0.27 #110 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.07 #59 |
| −0.4% #34 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.4% #16 |
| −2.0% #98 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #72 |
| −1.3% #26 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.9% #38 |
| −2.0% #105 | Havoc created | +0.0% #56 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.011 #77 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.014 #87 |
| −0.046 #130 | Passing explosiveness | −0.024 #110 |
| −0.15 #83 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.03 #51 |
| −0.023 #73 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.047 #36 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 60% #10 | Run rate | 52% #67 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ohio | Season to date | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 26.8 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 43.6 / 14.2 |
| +0.0 | Avg margin | +29.4 |
| -1.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.8 |
| 61.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
Ohio: last games
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Nebraska: last games
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