Final
Fri, Sep 4, 7:00 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium · 85° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Indiana State–Purdue) | 8–50 | – | 19–44 |
| Spread | Purdue −42.2 | Purdue −35.5 | Purdue −25 |
| Total | 57.9 | 55.5 | 63 |
| Purdue win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Purdue −34.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Purdue −35.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Won
Spread: 6.7 pts better than Vegas for Purdue (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Purdue by 42.20%
Indiana State by 14+
0%
Indiana State by 1–13
4%
Purdue by 1–13
96%
Purdue by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Indiana State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.278 | Offense EPA / play | −0.013 #66 |
| +0.306 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.056 #73 |
| −15.1% | Offense success rate | +0.3% #48 |
| +15.0% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.4% #73 |
| −0.251 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.018 #42 |
| −0.277 | Passing EPA / play | −0.016 #65 |
| +0.261 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.037 #60 |
| +0.346 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.048 #66 |
| −17.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.2 #68 |
| +20.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.4 #62 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.2% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.3% #34 |
| +12.0% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.5% #46 |
| −2.22 | Points per drive | −0.08 #66 |
| +3.17 | Points per drive allowed | +0.38 #52 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.99 | Line yards per rush | −0.05 #49 |
| +0.77 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.11 #72 |
| +9.8% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.8% #59 |
| −5.5% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.1% #52 |
| +0.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.0% #36 |
| −9.2% | Havoc created | +0.0% #55 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.033 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.003 #35 |
| +0.058 | Passing explosiveness | +0.011 #64 |
| −0.56 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.08 #66 |
| −0.041 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.015 #89 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 51% #75 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Indiana State | Season to date | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 19.0 / 44.0 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 35.0 |
| -25.0 | Avg margin | -4.6 |
| +10.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.1 |
| 54.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.4 |
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