Final
Sun, Sep 6, 4:00 PM ET
Husky Stadium · 69° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WSU–Washington) | 16–34 | – | 10–24 |
| Spread | Washington −18.6 | Washington −23.5 | Washington −14 |
| Total | 49.7 | 51.5 | 34 |
| Washington win chance | 88% | – | – |
Line moved from Washington −21.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WSU +23.5 Won★ Under 51.5 Won
Spread: 4.9 pts better than Vegas for Washington State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Washington by 18.62%
Washington State by 14+
10%
Washington State by 1–13
27%
Washington by 1–13
61%
Washington by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.059 #97 | Offense EPA / play | +0.080 #17 |
| +0.030 #67 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.053 #25 |
| −0.8% #80 | Offense success rate | +4.6% #15 |
| +1.5% #85 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.4% #26 |
| −0.022 #107 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.103 #20 |
| −0.096 #100 | Passing EPA / play | +0.057 #26 |
| +0.033 #76 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.054 #21 |
| +0.068 #76 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.029 #29 |
| −4.3 #94 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.2 #16 |
| +0.5 #60 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.7 #23 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.2% #107 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.9% #25 |
| +1.1% #79 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.3% #32 |
| −0.42 #90 | Points per drive | +1.00 #12 |
| +0.27 #78 | Points per drive allowed | −0.39 #27 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.05 #119 | Line yards per rush | +0.22 #32 |
| +0.09 #91 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.09 #43 |
| −0.1% #123 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.3% #46 |
| −0.4% #84 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.4% #81 |
| −1.2% #71 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.2% #37 |
| −1.6% #113 | Havoc created | −0.6% #68 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.012 #68 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.037 #17 |
| +0.060 #119 | Passing explosiveness | +0.038 #123 |
| −0.24 #101 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.05 #29 |
| +0.020 #91 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.003 #60 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #73 | Run rate | 57% #45 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WSU | Season to date | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-2 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 19.0 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 18.4 |
| -6.0 | Avg margin | +8.2 |
| -3.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -11.7 |
| 56.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.6 |
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