Final
Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET
Lambeau Field · 70° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wisconsin–Notre Dame) | 11–35 | – | 13–41 |
| Spread | Notre Dame −24.4 | Notre Dame −21 | Notre Dame −28 |
| Total | 46.2 | 45.5 | 54 |
| Notre Dame win chance | 94% | – | – |
Line moved from Notre Dame −16.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Notre Dame −21 Won★ Over 45.5 Won
Spread: 3.4 pts better than Vegas for Notre Dame (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Notre Dame by 24.41%
Wisconsin by 14+
5%
Wisconsin by 1–13
19%
Notre Dame by 1–13
75%
Notre Dame by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wisconsin | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.031 #76 | Offense EPA / play | +0.185 #3 |
| −0.016 #34 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.147 #3 |
| −1.3% #69 | Offense success rate | +7.9% #2 |
| −0.5% #33 | Defense success rate allowed | −5.9% #8 |
| +0.016 #45 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.139 #4 |
| −0.029 #77 | Passing EPA / play | +0.195 #6 |
| −0.031 #25 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.088 #10 |
| −0.040 #25 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.176 #1 |
| −1.8 #71 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +13.4 #1 |
| −6.0 #16 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −9.4 #6 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.2% #56 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +9.0% #1 |
| −2.0% #19 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.4% #6 |
| −0.12 #72 | Points per drive | +2.51 #1 |
| −0.44 #15 | Points per drive allowed | −0.74 #7 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.08 #30 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #7 |
| −0.17 #18 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.25 #13 |
| −0.8% #30 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.2% #23 |
| +2.1% #16 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.5% #21 |
| −0.8% #44 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #20 |
| −0.9% #82 | Havoc created | +3.3% #7 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.006 #30 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.038 #1 |
| +0.038 #31 | Passing explosiveness | +0.005 #73 |
| −0.03 #50 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.39 #1 |
| −0.060 #24 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.038 #50 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #20 | Run rate | 55% #31 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wisconsin | Season to date | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-0 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 31.6 / 16.6 | Points for / against | 41.2 / 11.8 |
| +15.0 | Avg margin | +29.4 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.9 |
| 55.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.2 |
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