Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 70° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Bowling Green–Nebraska) | 9–41 | – | 7–56 |
| Spread | Nebraska −32.4 | Nebraska −30.5 | Nebraska −49 |
| Total | 49.9 | 48.5 | 63 |
| Nebraska win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from Nebraska −25.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Nebraska −30.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Won
Spread: 1.9 pts better than Vegas for Nebraska (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Nebraska by 32.40%
Bowling Green by 14+
2%
Bowling Green by 1–13
10%
Nebraska by 1–13
88%
Nebraska by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Bowling Green | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.234 #138 | Offense EPA / play | +0.089 #25 |
| +0.068 #87 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.011 #67 |
| −7.5% #134 | Offense success rate | +3.7% #29 |
| +2.5% #93 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.3% #43 |
| −0.293 #138 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.145 #15 |
| −0.072 #86 | Passing EPA / play | +0.019 #51 |
| +0.006 #61 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.081 #108 |
| +0.117 #98 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.069 #25 |
| −13.3 #138 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.0 #24 |
| +1.7 #78 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.0 #48 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.3% #131 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.9% #9 |
| −2.3% #34 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.0% #22 |
| −1.59 #137 | Points per drive | +0.52 #34 |
| +0.43 #93 | Points per drive allowed | −0.22 #45 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.39 #134 | Line yards per rush | +0.32 #28 |
| +0.23 #114 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.16 #105 |
| +1.9% #125 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.9% #50 |
| +1.0% #47 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.9% #103 |
| −1.1% #84 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.7% #61 |
| −4.0% #135 | Havoc created | +1.3% #29 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.301 #138 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.073 #36 |
| +0.142 #53 | Passing explosiveness | +0.136 #54 |
| −0.78 #137 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.04 #35 |
| +0.089 #101 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.030 #80 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 62% #17 | Run rate | 56% #59 |
| −5.3 #57 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.8 #66 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Bowling Green | Season to date | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 11.4 / 33.0 | Points for / against | 43.6 / 14.2 |
| -21.6 | Avg margin | +29.4 |
| -5.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.8 |
| 48.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
Bowling Green: last 1 games
| L13-20 |
Nebraska: last 1 games
| W49-21 |
