Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 74° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Maryland–UConn) | 26–25 | – | 38–14 |
| Spread | Maryland −0.3 | Maryland −11.5 | Maryland −24 |
| Total | 51.2 | 52.5 | 52 |
| UConn win chance | 49% | – | – |
Line moved from Maryland −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UConn +11.5 Lost★ Under 52.5 Won
Spread: 11.2 pts better than Vegas for UConn (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 1.3 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Maryland by 0.319%
Maryland by 14+
31%
Maryland by 1–13
31%
UConn by 1–13
19%
UConn by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Maryland | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.014 #60 | Offense EPA / play | −0.023 #64 |
| −0.049 #22 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.085 #88 |
| −3.2% #95 | Offense success rate | −3.9% #104 |
| +0.0% #45 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.2% #69 |
| +0.024 #48 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.022 #71 |
| −0.051 #84 | Passing EPA / play | −0.034 #76 |
| −0.039 #29 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.101 #104 |
| −0.044 #32 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.042 #75 |
| +3.5 #36 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.8 #58 |
| +0.1 #54 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.1 #85 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.7% #113 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.5% #111 |
| +0.7% #60 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.9% #62 |
| +0.50 #37 | Points per drive | −0.11 #57 |
| +0.35 #50 | Points per drive allowed | +0.95 #94 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.05 #59 | Line yards per rush | −0.23 #91 |
| −0.12 #31 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.11 #68 |
| +2.0% #85 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.6% #100 |
| +2.9% #22 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.3% #35 |
| −0.5% #49 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #57 |
| +0.3% #52 | Havoc created | −2.8% #115 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.236 #2 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.087 #24 |
| −0.037 #88 | Passing explosiveness | +0.012 #67 |
| +1.04 #2 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.05 #48 |
| +0.016 #87 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.101 #40 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 41% #136 | Run rate | 50% #93 |
| −43.9 #133 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −37.8 #126 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Maryland | Season to date | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 30.4 / 30.2 | Points for / against | 36.0 / 26.2 |
| +0.2 | Avg margin | +9.8 |
| -7.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.9 |
| 56.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.4 |
