Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:15 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium · 70° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WIU–Wisconsin) | 6–50 | – | 9–36 |
| Spread | Wisconsin −44.0 | Wisconsin −43.5 | Wisconsin −27 |
| Total | 55.6 | 53.5 | 45 |
| Wisconsin win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Wisconsin −38.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Wisconsin −43.5 Lost★ Over 53.5 Lost
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Wisconsin (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wisconsin by 44.00%
Western Illinois by 14+
0%
Western Illinois by 1–13
3%
Wisconsin by 1–13
97%
Wisconsin by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.304 | Offense EPA / play | −0.033 #71 |
| +0.308 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.010 #55 |
| −14.7% | Offense success rate | −1.5% #68 |
| +12.0% | Defense success rate allowed | −0.9% #33 |
| −0.221 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.016 #65 |
| −0.307 | Passing EPA / play | −0.033 #74 |
| +0.096 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.009 #41 |
| +0.374 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.016 #45 |
| −13.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.2 #70 |
| +21.4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.0 #23 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.7% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.8% #78 |
| +16.0% | Passing-down success allowed | −8.8% #1 |
| −2.13 | Points per drive | −0.20 #64 |
| +3.35 | Points per drive allowed | −0.59 #12 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.88 | Line yards per rush | −0.04 #57 |
| +0.75 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.22 #19 |
| +10.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.2% #55 |
| −5.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.1% #94 |
| +4.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.1% #64 |
| −5.2% | Havoc created | −1.5% #93 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.022 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.018 #75 |
| −0.020 | Passing explosiveness | +0.053 #52 |
| −0.75 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.20 #79 |
| +0.226 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.157 #17 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% | Run rate | 57% #16 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +25.2 #1 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WIU | Season to date | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 9.0 / 36.0 | Points for / against | 31.6 / 16.6 |
| -27.0 | Avg margin | +15.0 |
| +16.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.0 |
| 57.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.8 |
Western Illinois: last games
No games yet.
Wisconsin: last 1 games
| L13-41 |
