Final
Sat, Sep 19, 2:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · 82° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SIU–Illinois) | 14–52 | – | 10–48 |
| Spread | Illinois −38.6 | Illinois −34.5 | Illinois −38 |
| Total | 66.0 | 55.5 | 58 |
| Illinois win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Illinois −41.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Illinois −34.5 Won★ Over 55.5 Won
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 10.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Illinois by 38.60%
Southern Illinois by 14+
1%
Southern Illinois by 1–13
6%
Illinois by 1–13
93%
Illinois by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.152 | Offense EPA / play | +0.067 #31 |
| +0.249 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.146 #125 |
| −8.2% | Offense success rate | +5.4% #16 |
| +9.6% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.7% #91 |
| −0.012 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.007 #78 |
| −0.262 | Passing EPA / play | +0.159 #19 |
| +0.178 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.110 #108 |
| +0.259 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.199 #120 |
| −7.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.7 #39 |
| +12.9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.5 #75 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +8.6% #9 |
| +11.3% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.1% #88 |
| −1.70 | Points per drive | +0.55 #32 |
| +1.40 | Points per drive allowed | +0.46 #90 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.27 | Line yards per rush | +0.07 #75 |
| +0.42 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.13 #89 |
| +1.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.3% #47 |
| −3.1% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.5% #94 |
| −0.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −6.2% #3 |
| +1.1% | Havoc created | −2.4% #113 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.235 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.018 #85 |
| +0.329 | Passing explosiveness | +0.144 #57 |
| −0.21 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.24 #82 |
| +0.293 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.005 #64 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% | Run rate | 57% #49 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −4.5 #39 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SIU | Season to date | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-2 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 10.0 / 48.0 | Points for / against | 30.6 / 26.0 |
| -38.0 | Avg margin | +4.6 |
| -3.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.4 |
| 62.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.6 |
